发展新质生产力是推动经济高质量发展的核心引擎,战略性新兴产业技术创新对驱动新质生产力发展具有重要作用,而现有文献对其具体驱动机制的研究仍显不足。本文基于TOE理论,运用NCA和动态QCA方法,分析2011—2021年我国30个省域面板数据,探讨战略性新兴产业技术创新的技术、组织和环境要素交互作用形成的新质生产力组态路径。研究发现:第一,技术创新的单个因素均不足以构成驱动新质生产力发展的必要条件;第二,实现高新质生产力发展水平的组态路径共有3条,分别是技术-知识产权保护联动型、技术-组织双元联动型、技术-组织-环境多元联动型,其中技术要素始终作为核心条件存在;第三,驱动新质生产力发展的要素组态路径呈现一定的时空变化规律。时间维度上,多条组态路径具有时序稳定性且解释力逐步增强;空间维度上,部分组态路径的组内覆盖率存在地区差异。研究结论有助于深化对我国新质生产力形成路径复杂性机理的认知,为我国因地制宜发展新质生产力提供理论依据和实践指导。

Cultivating new quality productive forces serves as an inherent requirement and central focus in driving premium-grade societal progress. Technological innovation in strategic emerging industries plays a significant role in driving the development of new quality productive forces. However, existing literature remains insufficient in exploring the specific driving mechanisms. Based on the TOE (Technology-Organization-Environment) framework, this study employed the NCA (Necessary Condition Analysis) and dynamic QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) methods to analyze the panel data from 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2021, investigating the configurational pathways of new quality productive forces formed through the interaction of technological, organizational and environmental factors of technological innovation in strategic emerging industries. The research findings revealed that: First, the single factor of technological innovation is insufficient to constitute necessary conditions for driving the development of new quality productive forces; Second, there are three configurational pathways have been identified for realizing high-level development of new quality productive forces: the technology-intellectual property protection synergy model, the technology-organization dual synergy model, and the technology-organization-environment multiple synergy model, with technological elements consistently serving as core conditions across all pathways; Third, the configurational pathways driving the development of new quality productive forces exhibit certain spatiotemporal variation patterns. Temporally, multiple pathways demonstrate sequential stability with gradually increasing explanatory power; Spatially, the within-group coverage of some pathways shows regional variations. The conclusions of this study will contribute to deepening the understanding of the complex mechanisms underlying the formation pathways of new quality productive forces in China, and provide theoretical foundations and practical guidance for developing new quality productive forces tailored to local conditions.