科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 101-109.DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2025.03.010

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

供应链不确定性对企业创新的影响及机制

董启琛1,肖土盛2,赵雪晴3   

  1. 1.北京物资学院会计学院，北京101149；
    2.中央财经大学会计学院，北京100081；
    3.首都经济贸易大学会计学院，北京100070

  • 收稿日期:2023-08-13 修回日期:2024-10-23 出版日期:2025-03-20 发布日期:2025-03-10
  • 通讯作者: 肖土盛
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目：“企业数字化转型的赋能机制与赋能效果研究：基于人力资本结构调整视角”（72272167，2023.01—2026.12）。

Influence and mechanism of supply chain uncertainty on enterprise innovation

Dong Qichen1， Xiao Tusheng2， Zhao Xueqing3   

  1. 1. School of Accounting, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149, China; 
    2. School of Accounting, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China; 
    3. School of Accounting, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
  • Received:2023-08-13 Revised:2024-10-23 Online:2025-03-20 Published:2025-03-10
  • Contact: xiao tusheng

摘要：     创新是企业发展的第一驱动力，但随着世界进入百年未有之大变局，供应链不确定性的增加给企业创新带来了重大挑战。本文构建理论模型刻画供应链不确定性影响企业创新的内在机理，提供了供应链不确定性的衡量方法并进行实证检验。研究发现，供应链不确定性的增加将抑制企业创新，主要因供应链不确定性引致的资源约束效应造成了商业信用融资减少，以及价值观望效应造成了专用资产投资收缩。而企业内部的数字化转型以及供应链透明度增加，企业外部的融资融券制度改革以及资本市场开放有助于缓解供应链不确定性对企业创新的负面影响。不同供应链主体的不确定性均会对企业创新产生抑制作用，但相较于客户不确定性，供应商不确定性对创新的抑制作用更强。从企业创新的产出端来看，供应链不确定性对企业的创新产出也表现出抑制作用，特别是对联合创新的负面影响更强。本研究揭示了供应链不确定性的经济后果，为维护国家供应链安全稳定、促进企业创新提供了新视角和新知识。

关键词: 供应链, 客户, 供应商, 不确定性, 创新

Abstract:    Innovation is the first driving force for enterprise development, but with the world entering a century of unprecedented changes, the increase in supply chain uncertainty has brought major challenges to enterprise innovation. This paper constructed a theoretical model to describe the internal mechanism of supply chain uncertainty affecting firm innovation, and provided a measurement method of supply chain uncertainty and makes an empirical test. It was found that the increase of supply chain uncertainty will inhibit enterprise innovation, mainly due to the resource constraint effect caused by supply chain uncertainty resulting in the reduction of commercial credit financing, and to the value wait-and-see effect caused by the contraction of investment in special assets. The internal digital transformation and the increased transparency of the supply chain, the reform of the margin financing system outside the enterprise and the opening of the capital market can help alleviate the negative impact of supply chain uncertainty on enterprise innovation. The uncertainty of different supply chain entities can inhibit the innovation of enterprises, but compared with customer uncertainty, supplier uncertainty has a stronger inhibitory effect on innovation. From the perspective of enterprise innovation output, supply chain uncertainty also has an inhibitory effect on enterprise innovation output, especially the negative impact on joint innovation. This study has revealed the economic consequences of supply chain uncertainty, and it will provide a new perspective and knowledge for maintaining the security and stability of national supply chain and promoting enterprise innovation.

Key words: supply chain, customer, supplier, uncertainty, innovation