Abstract: This study analyzes the effect of technology progress on CO2 emissions intensity through a theoretical model first. Then we compute the technical progressive index decomposed from DEA-Malmquist method of 37 industries in China. Besides, we use static and dynamic panel data model to study the effect of technology progress on CO2 emissions intensity. Results reveal: For the whole sample, technical progress is the effective measure to reduce CO2 emission intensity; FDI could also reduce CO2 emissions intensity significantly. Therefore the pollution haven hypothesis does not exist at industry levels; the expansion of fixed assets investment and speeded industrialization could raise CO2 emissions intensity significantly. At the industry level, the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity varies: Technology progress of industry with high energy efficiency could significantly reduce CO2 emissions intensity. While industry with low energy efficiency would increase CO2 emissions intensity. Which may be explained by different choices of a path of technical progress and path dependence in different industries.

Key words: technical progress, CO2 emission intensity, industry level, path dependence, dynamic panel