Using the non-parameter Kaplan-Meier method and the discrete time Cloglog model, this paper empirically studies the duration of China's export and its decisive factors. The results indicate that the dynamic change of China's export relationship is very remarkable and the median of the duration is only two years. There is also the threshold effect for China's export. The survival rate of trade relationship is lower at the beginning, but the failure rate after four years declines significantly. The rising of economic scale, initial export volume, diversification and so on, will reduce the failure probability of export relationship. While the rising of geographic distance, unit value, RMB exchange rate and so on, will increase the failure probability of export relationship. Finally, this paper put forward some suggestion about how to lengthen the duration of China's export.
Key words
export /
duration /
Cloglog Model
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