An optimal model of provincial lower-carbon economic growth is established based on the global optimal angle. Under the constraint of energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity of China, the optimal path for provincial lower-carbon economic growth is found. The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of each province is predicted, and the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth of each province is also predicted. If each provincial government is able to achieve the target of energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions intensity during the period of 2010-2015, the economic growth rate of Shanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou would be impeded, however the economic growth rate of other provinces in China would be promoted. Increasing economic growth rate of Beijing, Hebei, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong is benefit to drive economic development of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou. But the energy-carbon intensity of several provinces would be increased. From 2010 to 2015, the energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity of the whole nation would be reduced about 18.19% and 19.56%, respectively. Excerpt the carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth for the provinces of Hainan and Qinghai all in the status of growth connection, rest of the provinces are all in the condition of weak decoupling. The results show that the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction is remarkable on the optimal economic growth path. The growth rate of carbon emissions is slower than the growth rate of energy consumption in each province. It means that energy resource structure of each province is gradually optimizing.
Key words
optimal model /
energy intensity /
carbon emission intensity /
economic growth /
decoupling analysis
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