Abstract: Abstract： In the establishment process of asymmetric Cournot game model based on the incomplete information and bounded rationality, a approach for adjusting the competitor’s marginal cost estimation is put forward according to the competitor’s practical outputs, the expressions of production output and marginal profit during the adjustment phase is found out, the restriction terms for reaching equilibrium conditions under the principle of profit maximization in the market are summed up. At last, the threshold value of technology spillover level for distinguishing the first mover advantages or first mover disadvantages is calculated by means of the numerical example.

Key words: incomplete information, bounded rationality, Cournot game model, first mover advantage, first mover disadvantage