The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies  

Yin Lu, Li Tianzhu

Science Research Management ›› 2008, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4) : 12-18.

PDF(1109 KB)
PDF(1109 KB)
Science Research Management ›› 2008, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4) : 12-18.

The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies  

  •   Yin Lu, Li Tianzhu
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Abstract

  Aimed at the current status that the existing assessment methods for emerging technologies are insufficient, the ideas and methodologies using scenario planning in dynamic assessment for emerging technologies are analyzed. Then, on this basis, a model of the dynamic assessment process for emerging technologies is developed. And a technology named MagicStor is taken as a instance; the traitsand application process of the model are illustrated.

Key words

scenario planning / emerging technology / uncertainty / dynamic assessment

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Yin Lu, Li Tianzhu

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The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies  [J]. Science Research Management. 2008, 29(4): 12-18
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