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Research on the impact mechanism of urban climate policy uncertainty on enterprise green innovation
Du Yang, Zhong Meirui, Xu Jun
Science Research Management ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (10) : 106-117.
PDF(1393 KB)
PDF(1393 KB)
Research on the impact mechanism of urban climate policy uncertainty on enterprise green innovation
The unique uncertainties embodied in China's climate policies are guiding a profound transformation in firms' green innovation. Drawing on real options theory and incorporating a temporal heterogeneity perspective together with organizational behavior analysis, this study systematically constructs an analytical framework for how city-level climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) influences green managerial innovation (GMI) and the persistence of green technological innovation (GTIS). Using data from Chinese listed firms from 2010 to 2023, we employ a random forest regressor and a fixed-effects model to jointly test the nonlinear impact of CCPU on GMI and GTIS. The main findings are as follows:(1) Feature importance analysis and the Boruta algorithm indicate that CCPU is a key factor affecting firms' GMI and GTIS. (2) Partial dependence plots reveal that the effect of CCPU on GMI follows an inverted U-shape, whereas its effect on GTIS exhibits a U-shaped pattern. (3) Further analysis shows that greater strategic aggressiveness amplifies the impact of CCPU on both GMI and GTIS; a larger pay gap within the firm weakens this impact; and for firms designated as "specialized, refined, distinctive and innovative" (SRDI), the marginal effect of CCPU on GMI and GTIS becomes more pronounced. This study builds a dialogue bridge between green innovation and decision-making theories from a behavioral perspective, extends the analysis of external drivers of green innovation, and will provide important insights for national climate policymaking and corporate green innovation.
city-level climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) / enterprise green innovation / nonlinear relationship / random forest / fixed effects
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