Does science and technology policy portfolio promote breakthroughs in key core technologies: A discussion based on consistency and equilibrium

Zhang Fen, Wang Yuying, Zhang Zhongyu

Science Research Management ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (10) : 41-51.

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Science Research Management ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (10) : 41-51. DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.10.005  CSTR: 32148.14.kygl.2026.10.005

Does science and technology policy portfolio promote breakthroughs in key core technologies: A discussion based on consistency and equilibrium

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Abstract

Breaking through the "bottleneck" of key core technologies is a central task in achieving technological self-reliance and national strength. Driven by national innovation development strategies, Chinese government agencies have, in recent years, intensively introduced a series of science and technology policies, aiming to accelerate the campaign for breakthroughs in critical technologies through a coordinated "policy bundle". This study selects listed enterprise groups among China's top 500 manufacturing firms as the research sample and conducts a quantitative analysis of national-level science and technology policy documents issued between 2012 and 2020. It systematically investigates the effects of policy mix consistency and equilibrium on firms' capacity to achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies. The empirical results reveal that both consistency and equilibrium of policy mixes exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with technological breakthroughs, indicating the existence of an optimal policy configuration range. However, no significant synergistic effect between the two dimensions was observed. This study not only provides new empirical evidence and theoretical interpretation for ongoing academic debates on the effectiveness of science and technology policy innovation, but also offers decision-making insights—based on empirical analysis—for optimizing China's science and technology policy system and designing tailored policy portfolios aligned with the developmental needs of key core technologies.

Key words

science and technology policy portfolio / consistency / equilibrium / breakthrough in key core technologies

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Zhang Fen , Wang Yuying , Zhang Zhongyu. Does science and technology policy portfolio promote breakthroughs in key core technologies: A discussion based on consistency and equilibrium[J]. Science Research Management. 2026, 47(10): 41-51 https://doi.org/10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.10.005

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Abstract
地方政府是推动科技成果转化的重要力量,探明政府政策组合实施与科技成果转化效果的关系对于国家创新驱动发展战略意义重大。以2016初至2018年末期间中国大陆31个省(直辖市、自治区)发布的881份促进科技成果转化相关政策文本为研究对象,依据扎根理论分析方法对政策进行分类并计数,构建地方政府-科技成果转化政策双模网络,基于网络计算政策多样性和政策普遍性,进而迭代计算政策组合复杂性指数以衡量中国地方政府政策复杂性;以此作为核心解释变量检验区域政策的不同策略综合应用和科技成果转化效果的关系。研究发现:(1)中国各地的政策组合复杂性特征分布不均,并不是越复杂的政策组合会带来越好的转化效果,政策组合复杂性在中等水平的地区转化效果表现更好。(2)政策组合复杂性指数与科技成果转化效果呈现倒U型关系。(3)地方政府的政策多样性对该地科技成果转化效果有显著的正向作用而政策普遍性负向影响地区的科技成果转化效果。此外,通过替换解释变量的方法以及改变时间维度的方法通过了稳健性验证。根据研究结果启示,地方政府应完善政府网络,加强信息沟通交流,因地制宜大力探索创新政策,利用政策网络发掘政策新颖度高的政策,提高政策多样性,保持政策复杂性指数在最佳水平。
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Local governments are an important force in the scientific and technological achievements transformation. Consequently, investigating the intricate interplay between government policy combination and the efficacy of scientific and technological achievements transformation holds paramount significance in the broader context of a national innovation-driven development strategy. This paper centers on an analysis of 881 policy documents pertaining to the advancement of scientific and technological transformation. These documents were issued by 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, spanning from the inception of 2016 to the culmination of 2018. The study operationalizes a bimodal network, integrating the dimensions of policy diversity and universality through network calculations. Subsequently, the iterative computation of the policy combination complexity index is conducted to quantify the multifaceted policy intricacies across Chinese local governments. This complexity index is then utilized as a pivotal explanatory variable to scrutinize the comprehensive alignment between diverse regional policy strategies and technological outcomes.Key findings of the research are as follows: The intricacy of policy combinations exhibits regional variances throughout China. By classifying regions based on the specificity of their policies' diversity and universality, four distinct archetypes emerge: "risk-averse" governments, "follower" governments, "risk-accepting" governments, and "innovative" governments. Intriguingly, there exists a general inverse relationship between the pervasiveness of local government policies and the level of their diversity; in essence, policies of heightened complexity are less ubiquitously employed. This suggests that an excessive complexity of policy combinations may not inherently translate into superior transformational outcomes. Instead, optimal transformational effects tend to manifest within regions boasting a judiciously moderate policy complexity.A curvilinear relationship, depicted by an inverted U-shape, emerges between the complexity index of policy combinations and scientific and technological achievements transformation. The rationale underscores that heightened policy complexity engenders stricter innovation conditions, thereby accentuating the reliance on regional resource endowments. Should the innovation ecosystem fall short in accommodating the requisites of an intricate policy array, the resultant transformational effects of scientific and technological breakthroughs stand to be attenuated. Thus, while a synergistic relationship between policy combinations and transformative outcomes is observable within a certain range, surpassing a specific threshold precipitates a diminishing trend in the synergistic impact of policy combinations, subsequently leading to a decline in transformative outcomes.The diversity of local government policies exhibits a distinctly affirmative influence on the scientific and technological achievements transformation. within a given region. Counterintuitively, the universality of policies exerts an opposing, negative influence on the transformation of such achievements. One might infer that heightened policy diversity emanates from local governments strategically harmonizing policies with their indigenous innovation landscapes. This strategic alignment not only amplifies policy implementation but also augments transformative outcomes. Conversely, policy universality gauges the frequency at which policies fostering scientific and technological advancements are invoked by local governments. A lower universality signifies novel policies that evade widespread application, consequently enhancing the transformative outcomes of scientific and technological endeavors. Moreover, the study's robustness is fortified through rigorous verification involving the substitution of explanatory variables and variations in the temporal dimension.Drawing upon these research conclusions, local governments are advised to bolster their administrative networks, fortify channels of information dissemination, craft innovative policies attuned to their unique circumstances, utilize policy networks to identify novel and impactful policies, foster policy diversity, and ensure that the policy complexity index is upheld at an optimal equilibrium.
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突破关键核心技术是“十四五”规划中科技自立自强的重要部署,是二〇三五年远景目标的重要规划,关系着我国能否如期进入创新型国家前列、建成世界科技强国。在该领域进行初步的理论探索,首先对关键核心技术进行概念界定与内涵阐释,进而描述关键核心技术的主要特征,最后以产学研为攻关主体,从“突破路径”和“助力渠道”两个维度探析出关键核心技术的7个主要突破因素:技术打压认知与需求导向、国际科技合作与开放创新、产学研深度融合、长期性充足研发资金投入、领军人才及其团队、技术链与产业链以及政府政策与体制机制等。结论可为后续研究与实践提供参考与借鉴。
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Breaking through key part of core technology is a major practical problem and theoretical research topic in China. Proposals for formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 explicitly states that "Sci-tech self-reliance and self-strengthening as the strategic support for national development, the new system concentrating nationwide effort and resources on key national sci-tech undertakings should be improved in the context of the socialist market economy, and key part of core technology should be strived to make major breakthroughs".However, the academic research on breaking through key part of core technology is still in its infancy, and there are not many researches abroad. The limited literature and reports in China mainly focus on a few topics such as leadership speeches, government role, identification methods, innovation barriers, breakthrough paths, institutional mechanisms and case description. Scholars has made a preliminary study on the concept, characteristics and influencing factors of key part of core technology, but it is far from reaching a consensus. In view of this, we especially explores some basic theoretical issues in this field: concept, connotation, characteristics and breakthrough factors of key part of core technology. Firstly, key part of core technology can be understood from two perspectives: the concept of “or” relationship between “key technology” and “core technology”; “key” represents the degree of importance, “core technology” is the body. Comprehensively reviewing the concepts of key part of core technology in existing literature, we find that some define it through the first perspective and quote the concepts like “core technology” from previous studies, which enlarges or reduces the connotation and extension of key part of core technology and blurs the boundary characters between them; Others make definition from their own interest, but perspectives vary from one to another. Based on this, we believe that key part of core technology is a necessary and insufficient condition of core technology. Combining the related theories of technology gap, the view of sustainable development and holistic approach to national security, we define the concept and explain the connotation of key part of core technology. Then, from the perspective of process, the main characters of key part of core technology are described from four aspects: technical status, research process, breakthrough mechanism and innovation achievements. Finally, the contradiction between a dilemma that one country’s high-end sci-tech development being blocked by other developed countries and that country's domestic security and market demand has triggered a theoretical discussion on breaking through key part of core technology and realizing sci-tech self-reliance and self-strengthening. Taking Industry-University-Research as the body, we analyze seven main breakthrough factors of the key part of core technology from the two dimensions of "breakthrough path" and "assistance channel": Technology suppression cognition and demand orientation, International science technology cooperation and open innovation, Deep integration of Industry-University-Research, Long-term sufficient R&D investment, Leading talents and their teams, Technology chain and industry chain, Government policies and institutional mechanisms. The conclusion can provide a basis of reference for the further research and practice.
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Abstract
构建产学研深度融合的技术创新体系已成为当前中国制造业打破西方技术封锁、实现科技自立自强的重要路径。制造业领军企业作为引领科技进步和产业发展的核心力量,如何有效主导并管理产学研融合以促进关键核心技术突破,成为当前理论和实践亟需探索的问题。本研究以中国制造业领军企业为研究对象,首次引入管理视角揭示企业产学研融合管理策略对关键核心技术突破的影响机制和边界条件。基于2012~2018年中国制造业500强集团上市企业的数据,研究发现:(1)产学研链路融合和主体融合管理策略均能促进制造业领军企业关键核心技术突破;(2)两者产生互补协同效应;(3)较高的企业权力配置集中度弱化了产学研链路融合对企业关键核心技术突破的促进作用,但强化了主体融合对企业关键核心技术突破的促进作用。本文研究结论为制造业领军企业合理实施产学研融合管理策略,有效发挥不同策略间的互补协同优势以及利用企业权力配置提升关键核心技术突破,提供有益的理论支持和政策建议。
Wang Yuying, Yuan Changhong. Industry-university-research integration managerial decisions and key core technology breakthroughs[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2023, 41(11):2027-2037.
In China’s new development paradigm, sci-tech self-reliance and self-strengthening are important attributes of high-quality development, the core of which is to achieve independent control of key core technologies. At present, although the manufacturing industry in China has seen a substantial improvement in the overall strength of science and technology innovation, the situation with regards to the control of key core technologies has remained essentially unchanged. Building a technological innovation system with deep integration of industry, university and research has become an important path for China's manufacturing industry to break the western technological blockade and achieve technological self-sufficiency and self-improvement. Manufacturing leading enterprises, as the core force leading the scientific and technological progress and industrial development, must learn how to effectively lead and manage the integration of industry-university-research (IUR) in order to enable breakthroughs in core technologies. This is an urgent issue that must be explored both theoretically and practically. Going beyond previous studies that focused primarily on the structural characteristics of IUR integration in the context of alliance portfolios and the traditional corporate innovation performance of general types of firms, this study takes Chinese manufacturing leading enterprises as the research object and introduces the management perspective of IUR integration for the first time to reveal the influence mechanism and boundary conditions of the managerial decisions of enterprises' IUR integration on the key core technology breakthroughs. We divide the managerial decisions of enterprises' IUR integration into two types: the link integration and the subject integration, and investigate the influence and synergy of both on the breakthrough of key core technologies. Meanwhile, we also pay attention to the fact that group control and operation are distinct features of leading manufacturing enterprises, which requires greater effort in setting up an effective corporate power allocation to achieve efficient decision-making, implementation, and coordination of IUR resources at different organizational levels. In this way, we introduce the boundary conditions of corporate power concentration to test its moderating effect on the above relationships. Based on the data of group listed enterprises in China's top 500 manufacturing industries from 2012 to 2018, the study finds that (1) two managerial decisions of IUR integration (link integration and subject integration) can both promote the breakthrough of key core technologies; and (2) they have complementary synergistic effects and can further promote the breakthroughs; (3) the higher corporate power concentration weakens the role of IUR link integration in promoting breakthroughs, while strengthens the role of IUR subject integration in promoting breakthroughs. The findings of this paper provide a new analytical perspective and theoretical logic that contributes to a theoretical understanding of IUR alliances, as well as suggestions for additional quantitative research on key core technological breakthroughs. Furthermore, they offer useful policy recommendations and theoretical support to manufacturing leading enterprises regarding implementing managerial decisions related to IUR integration, maximizing synergy advantages among different decisions, and enhancing key breakthroughs in core technology through corporate power allocation. As part of the institutional mechanism level, the government should also promote establishing IUR integration systems, guide the transfer and gathering of high-quality innovation resources to the key chains and nodes of innovation activities, and pilot and promote new organizational models and institutional forms for IUR integration.
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