Abstract:    With the continuous upgrading of China′s "mass innovation and entrepreneurship" strategy, the entrepreneurial enthusiasm of the whole society continues to rise, and the number of new enterprises is increasing with each passing day. Since it is difficult for entrepreneurs to make effective entrepreneurial decisions in a highly uncertain entrepreneurial environment, the high entrepreneurial enthusiasm is in sharp contrast to the generally low survival rate of new ventures. Scientific and rational entrepreneurial decision is the key to the success of the entrepreneur in the uncertain situation. Therefore, improving the quality of entrepreneurial decision-making to improve the success rate of entrepreneurship has become an important issue in theory and practice. Then, under the uncertain situation, how can entrepreneurs make effective entrepreneurial decision logic to break through the resource and opportunity constraints faced by the new venture, so as to realize the survival and growth of the new venture? This is a critical issue for startup entrepreneurs to address.Based on the effectuation theory and the moderating focus theory, this study explored the mechanism of the consistency of "promotion-defense" effectuation on entrepreneurial performance of new ventures, and analyzed the mediating effect of entrepreneurial opportunity identification and development. Based on data collected from a multi-source questionnaire survey of 176 entrepreneurs, the paper revealed the "black box" of the relationship between the effectuation consistency of "promotion-defense" and the entrepreneurial performance of new ventures. The results show that: (1) The higher the consistency of promotion and defensive effectuation, the higher the entrepreneurial performance of new ventures. (2) Compared with the "low promotion-low defense" effectuation, the entrepreneurial performance is higher when the "high promotion-high defense" effectuation is consistent. (3) Compared with the inconsistent of "low promotion-high defense" effectuation, the entrepreneurial performance is higher when the effectuation of "high promotion-low defense" is consistent. (4) Entrepreneurial opportunity identification and development play a mediating role between the consistency of promotion-defense effectuation and the entrepreneurial performance. This research will help to promote the development of effectuation theory, and provide theoretical guidance for entrepreneurs to improve the quality of entrepreneurial decision-making to achieve entrepreneurial success.The conclusion of this study may have some practical significance for the practice of entrepreneurship. Firstly, in an uncertain environment, entrepreneurs should make entrepreneurial decisions "with colored glasses" due to differences in self-regulation focus. Entrepreneurs who implement facilitative effectuation are more positive and optimistic about the institutional environment, unexpected events and opportunity assessment, but may ignore potential risks. Entrepreneurs who implement defensive effectuation will actively avoid risk, but may reject exploratory innovation behavior and risky decision-making. In a highly uncertain business environment, therefore, entrepreneurs should objectively understand their own cognitive tendency, and through widely collect information and resources, such as the dialectical thinking, to the situation, to accurately assess risks and opportunities, which can effectively promote and defense timely transformation between the two kinds of effectuation to guide and piece together, and then improve the success rate of entrepreneurship. Secondly, entrepreneurs should allocate their limited resources in two types of effectuations: promotion and defense, and achieve the consistency of effectuation through the balanced allocation of resources. Finally, there are a large number of entrepreneurial opportunities in the uncertain environment. Entrepreneurs should make full use of effectuation to obtain more resources, so as to quickly identify and develop entrepreneurial opportunities. Therefore, entrepreneurs should allocate resources in a balanced way and actively develop opportunities while avoiding risks, so as to effectively grasp the window of opportunity for entrepreneurship and promote the sustainable survival and development of new ventures.

Key words: effectuation, entrepreneurial opportunity identification and development, entrepreneurial performance, regulatory focus theory