The interactive economic spillover effect between carbon emission regulation and green innovation

Li Boxin, Dong Yu, Jia Zhitao

Science Research Management ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 173-182.

PDF(1096 KB)
PDF(1096 KB)
Science Research Management ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 173-182. DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.04.017  CSTR: 32148.14.kygl.2026.04.017

The interactive economic spillover effect between carbon emission regulation and green innovation

Author information +
History +

Abstract

Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper deconstructed the relationship between carbon emissions, green innovation and economic growth, and constructed the conjugate explanatory framework to promote economic growth in parallel with carbon emission regulation and green innovation. The empirical test with provincial panel data from 2011 to 2022 in China found that: Firstly, there is a significant dependence between economic growth and carbon emissions; green innovation could increase the economic contribution of unit carbon emissions effectively; and there is interactive spillover effect between them. Secondly, the interactive spillover effect of carbon emission and green innovation on economic growth has resonance characteristics. The higher the carbon emission scale, the stronger the endogenous driving force of green innovation on economic growth. Meanwhile, when the green innovation level is enhanced, the economic contribution of unit carbon emissions will be higher and higher. Finally, the spatial heterogeneity test also found that the interactive spillover effect of carbon emission regulation and green innovation on economic growth in the eastern region is most powerful, while the optimal spillover threshold of carbon emission regulation and green innovation to economic growth in the central and western areas is different. The above findings will provide inclusive path inspiration and a non-linear empirical basis for the scientific implementation of the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" target and for steady promotion of economic green transformation.

Key words

"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" target / carbon emission adjustment / green innovation / economic growth / "Porter Hypothesis"

Cite this article

Download Citations
Li Boxin , Dong Yu , Jia Zhitao. The interactive economic spillover effect between carbon emission regulation and green innovation[J]. Science Research Management. 2026, 47(4): 173-182 https://doi.org/10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.04.017

References

[1]
于仲觉, 朱庆华. 中国再制造产业的碳减排效应和经济影响分析[J]. 中国软科学, 2024(4):56-66.
YU Zhongjue, ZHU Qinghua. Analysis of the carbon emission reduction effects and economic impacts of China's remanufacturing industry[J]. China Soft Science, 2024(4):56-66.
[2]
GROSSMAN G M, KRUEGER A B. Economic growth and the environment[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, 110(2):353-377.
[3]
孙传旺, 陈智龙. 经济增长碳脱钩的联动效应研究:基于“全国一盘棋”视角下的社会网络分析[J]. 财贸研究, 2023, 34(8):1-12.
SUN Chuanwang, CHEN Zhilong. Interplay effect of economic growth and carbon decoupling:Based on “national coordination” perspective using social network analysis[J]. Finance and Trade Research, 2023, 34(8):1-12.
[4]
ZHAO Y H, SU Q, LI B K, et al. Have those countries declaring “zero carbon” or “carbon neutral” climate goals achieved carbon emissions-economic growth decoupling?[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 363:132450.
[5]
王培鑫, 吕长江. 环境保护与经济发展能否和谐共进:来自创新的经验证据[J]. 南开管理评论, 2023, 26(1):67-83.
WANG Peixin, LYU Changjiang. Can environmental and economic develop together in harmony:Evidence from innovation[J]. Nankai Business Review, 2023, 26(1):67-83.
[6]
XU G Y, ZHANG L M, PETER S, et al. Achieving China's carbon neutrality goal by economic growth rate adjustment and low-carbon energy structure[J]. Energy Policy, 2023, 183:113817.
[7]
方叶祥, 卢一斌. 逆向技术溢出、自主技术创新与中国碳排放强度[J]. 科学学研究, 2023, 41(5):818-829+885.
Abstract
本文选取2005-2017年中国省级面板数据,对各省逆向技术溢出强度与碳排放强度进行了测度,运用空间杜宾模型,并结合中介效应模型实证检验了中国对外直接投资(OFDI)过程中产生的逆向技术溢出效应对碳排放强度的影响机制。检验结果表明:逆向技术溢出会显著抑制本地碳排放强度,也会通过空间效应抑制周边地区的碳强度,且自主技术创新在其中充当中介变量,本地区母公司能对周边地区的绿色技术发展产生杠杆效应和正向的空间溢出;逆向技术溢出对本地碳排放强度的抑制作用受到东西部区位和经济发展水平的差异性影响;当投资东道国为“一带一路”部分国家时,逆向技术溢出依然能够抑制中国碳排放强度,但自主技术创新不再发挥中介效应;本文为推动中国经济低碳发展,早日实现碳中和任务提供了理论借鉴。
FANG Yexiang, LU Yibin. Reverse technology spillover, independent innovation and carbon emission intensity in China[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2023, 41(5):818-829+885.
This paper aims to research the impact of reverse technology spillover on the carbon emission intensity of home countries and whether the independent technological innovation of home countries can play an intermediary role in the process of reverse technology spillover affecting carbon emissions. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2017, this paper measures the intensity of reverse technology spillover and carbon emission intensity in each province. Preliminary analysis shows that the distribution of carbon emission intensity in China is high in the northwest and southwest regions, and low in the eastern coastal areas. For example, the carbon emission intensity in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shanxi and Guizhou is always at the forefront. Over time, the carbon emissions in China show a gradual downward trend. Next, this paper uses the spatial Durbin model and the intermediary effect model to test the influence and mechanism of reverse technology spillover effect on carbon emission intensity in the process of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in China. The test results show that reverse technology spillover will significantly inhibit the local carbon emission intensity, and it will also inhibit the carbon emission intensity of surrounding areas through spatial effect. In addition, independent technological innovation acts as an incomplete intermediary variable, and the parent companies in local area can generate leverage effect and positive spatial spillover on the development of green technology in surrounding areas. At the same time, the results of heterogeneity test show that the inhibitory effect of reverse technology spillover on carbon emission intensity is affected by the differences in geographic location, economic development level and investment host countries. The reverse technology spillover effect of the eastern region can significantly inhibit the carbon emission intensity of the local area and the surrounding areas, and independent technological innovation can act as an intermediary variable. In the midwest regions, reverse technology spillover can only inhibit carbon emissions in local area, but it will worsen the carbon emissions in the surrounding areas, there was no significant improvement in carbon emissions in the Midwest on total effects, and the intermediary mechanism is no longer obvious. For economically developed regions, spatial spillover mechanism and intermediary mechanism are still obvious, and the effect of core explanatory variables is basically the same as that in the eastern region. The reverse technology spillover in underdeveloped areas will disaster the carbon emissions of surrounding areas, and independent technological innovation has not played a mediating effect. When the host country of investment is part of the "Belt and Road" countries, reverse technology spillovers can still restrain the carbon emission intensity of China, but independent technological innovation no longer plays an intermediary effect. In the robustness test, this paper presents three methods including replacement variables, replacement space weight matrix and adding interaction terms. The test results of the main variables are basically consistent with the previous ones, which proves the credibility of the results.This paper provides a theoretical reference for China's low-carbon economic development, and provides guidance for the early realization of carbon neutrality tasks.
[8]
郑兵云, 徐曼琳, 李邃. 环境规制对异质型绿色技术创新的非线性影响[J]. 科研管理, 2024, 45(4):157-165.
ZHENG Bingyun, XU Manlin, LI Sui. Nonlinear effect of environmental regulation on heterogeneous green technology innovation[J]. Science Research Management, 2024, 45(4):157-165.
[9]
王性玉, 赵辉. 环境保护税改革对企业绿色发展的影响研究[J]. 科研管理, 2023, 44(8):139-151.
WANG Xingyu, ZHAO Hui. A study on the impact of environmental protection tax reform on the green development of enterprises[J]. Science Research Management, 2023, 44(8):139-151.
[10]
LI H C, SU Y Q, DING J C, et al. Unveiling the green innovation paradox:Exploring the impact of carbon emission reduction on corporate green technology innovation[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2024, 207:123562.
[11]
吴朋, 李玉刚, 叶凯月. 环境规制、技术创新与工业企业绿色全要素生产率:基于中国省际面板数据的分析[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2024, 45(7):110-128.
WU Peng, LI Yugang, YE Kaiyue. Environmental regulation,technological innovation and green total factor productivity of industrial enterprises:An analysis based on Chinese interprovincial panel data[J]. Science of Science and Management of S.&T., 2024, 45(7):110-128.
[12]
杜克锐, 欧阳晓灵, 郑泳薇. 环境规制是否促进我国城市的绿色经济增长?[J]. 统计研究, 2023, 40(12):39-49.
DU Kerui, OUYANG Xiaoling, ZHENG Yongwei. Does environmental regulation promote green economic growth of Chinese cities?[J]. Statistical Research, 2023, 40(12):39-49.
[13]
SHAN L, CHUN Z. Green growth: Intellectual property conflicts and prospects in the extraction of natural resources for sustainable development[J]. Resources Policy, 2024, 89:104588.
[14]
张兴祥, 孙赛杰. 碳排放权交易政策能否促进碳减排:基于地级市面板数据的研究[J]. 南开经济研究, 2024(2):160-178.
ZHANG Xingxiang, SUN Saijie. Can carbon trade emissions policy promote carbon emission reductions: A study based on prefecture-level city panel data[J]. Nankai Economic Studies, 2024(2):160-178.
[15]
宋德勇, 陈梁, 陈姚. 排污权交易如何提升企业能源效率:微观机理与模式差异[J]. 经济管理, 2023, 45(10):168-187.
SONG Deyong, CHEN Liang, CHEN Yao. Emissions trading how to improve enterprise energy efficiency: Micro mechanism and mode difference[J]. Business and Management Journal, 2023, 45(10):168-187.
[16]
林伯强. 碳中和进程中的中国经济高质量增长[J]. 经济研究, 2022, 57(1):56-71.
LIN Boqiang. High-quality economic growth in the process of carbon neutrality in China[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2022, 57(1):56-71.
[17]
谷方杰, 张文锋. 省际视阈下中国“双碳”目标实现路径选择研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2023(7):215-224.
GU Fangjie, ZHANG Wenfeng. “dual carbon” Study on the path selection of China's goal from the provincial perspective[J]. China Soft Science, 2023(7):215-224.
[18]
邵帅, 范美婷, 杨莉莉. 经济结构调整、绿色技术进步与中国低碳转型发展:基于总体技术前沿和空间溢出效应视角的经验考察[J]. 管理世界, 2022, 38(2):46-69+4-10.
SHAO Shuai, FAN Meiting, YANG Lili. Economic restructuring,green technical progress and low-carbon transition development in China:An empirical investigation based on the overall technology frontier and spatial spillover effect[J]. Journal of Management World, 2022, 38(2):46-69+4-10.
[19]
XU B. Environmental regulations, technological innovation,and low carbon transformation:A case of the logistics industry in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2024, 439:140710.
[20]
REN S G, YANG X Y, HU Y C, et al. Emission trading, induced innovation and firm performance[J]. Energy Economics, 2022, 112:106157.
[21]
孙海波, 刘忠璐. 环境规制、清洁技术创新与中国工业绿色转型[J]. 科研管理, 2021, 42(11):54-61.
SUN Haibo, LIU Zhonglu. Environmental regulation,clean-technology innovation and China's industrial green transformation[J]. Science Research Management, 2021, 42(11):54-61.
[22]
HANSEN B E. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference[J]. Journal of econometrics, 1999, 93(2): 345-368.
[23]
GUAN Y, SHAN Y, HUANG Q, et al. Assessment to China's recent emission pattern shifts[J]. Earth's Future, 2021, 9(11):e2021EF002241.
[24]
YAN D S, LIU C G, LI P X. Effect of carbon emissions and the driving mechanism of economic growth target setting: An empirical study of provincial data in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2023, 415:137721.
[25]
许文立, 孙磊. 市场激励型环境规制与能源消费结构转型:来自中国碳排放权交易试点的经验证据[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2023, 40(7):133-155.
XU Wenli, SUN Lei. Market-incentive environmental regulation and energy consumption structure transformation[J]. Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics, 2023, 40(7):133-155.
[26]
LUCCHETTI R, PALOMBA G. Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical analysis with conditional heteroskedasticity[J]. Economic Modelling, 2009, 26(3):659-667.
PDF(1096 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

/