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“碳排放权交易”的治理效果与减排机制研究
Research on the governance effect and emission reduction mechanism of the carbon emission trading system
面对“碳达峰、碳中和”的战略目标,强化绿色低碳发展的制度保障,是中国经济高质量发展的客观要求。本文基于因素分解框架,纳入能源结构因素,系统性地提出碳排放权交易驱动二氧化碳减排的理论机制。将碳排放权交易试点政策看作一项准自然实验,以2005—2017年30个省级面板数据为样本,运用双重差分方法实证检验了碳交易试点的治理效果与减排机制。研究发现:碳排放权交易的实施显著降低了试点地区的二氧化碳排放,运用工具变量法克服潜在的内生性问题和一系列稳健性检验之后,结论依然成立;机制分析表明,碳排放权交易的治理效果经由产业结构转型、能源结构优化和技术创新三条路径实现,并对二氧化硫、氮氧化物和烟粉尘等污染物产生了协同减排效应;异质性检验显示,碳排放权交易对环境执法严格、创新能力突出、人力资本水平高的地区,以及老工业基地和资源型地区的治理效果更为明显。本文的研究结论不仅为碳排放权交易制度的治理效果和减排机制提供了新的理论支撑及经验证据,而且为全国统一碳市场建立运行之后的制度体系完善与配套政策优化提供有益思路。
In face of the strategic goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutral”, strengthening the institutional guarantee of green and low-carbon development is the objective requirement of China's high-quality economic development. Based on the factor decomposition framework and the energy structure factor, this paper systematically proposed the theoretical mechanism in which carbon emission trading system drives carbon dioxide emission reduction. Moreover, regarding the carbon emission trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper empirically tested the governance effect and emission reduction mechanisms by using the difference-in-differences method and taking the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions from 2005 to 2017 as samples. The results showed that the implementation of the carbon emission trading system significantly reduces the carbon dioxide emissions in the pilot areas. The conclusion is still valid after using the instrumental variable method to overcome the potential endogenous problems and a series of robustness tests. The mechanism analysis showed that the governance effect is realized through three paths, namely industrial structure transformation, energy structure optimization, and technological innovation. Besides, it also has a synergistic emission reduction effect on sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and smoke and dust. The heterogeneity test showed that the impacts of the carbon emission trading system on the regions with strict environmental law enforcement, outstanding innovation ability, high human capital level, old industries-based and resource-based areas are more obvious. The conclusions will not only provide new empirical evidence for the governance effect and emission reduction mechanism of the carbon emission trading system, but also provide useful ideas for the improvement of the institutional system and the optimization of supporting policies after the establishment of the national unified carbon market.
carbon emission trading / industrial structure / energy structure / technological innovation
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In the original version of the Data Descriptor the surname of author Hesham Elhalawani was misspelled. This has now been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions.
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