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中国半导体产业技术创新效率评价研究——来自A股上市公司的经验证据
Research on evaluation of the technological innovation efficiency of the semiconductor industry in China: Some empirical evidence from A-share listed companies
当前严峻的国际竞争格局使得中国半导体产业面临前所未有的挑战,提升其技术创新效率成为各界专家学者讨论的焦点。本文基于2019—2022年中国半导体产业76家上市公司技术创新投入和产出的相关数据,将半导体产业链上市公司分为设计、制造、封测、设备和材料5个环节,运用BCC-DEA和Malmquist-DEA模型对半导体产业整体以及产业链各环节的技术创新效率进行了静态、动态评价以及投入冗余分析。研究发现:(1)从静态视角来看,中国半导体产业整体技术创新效率不高,纯技术效率虽在提高,但DEA有效的企业数量呈下降趋势,总数不及1/5,设计、设备和材料环节技术创新效率的平均值高于行业平均水平,制造和封测环节的技术创新效率较为薄弱;(2)从动态视角来看,中国半导体产业Malmquist生产率变化波动较大,整体技术创新效率呈下降趋势,制造和封测环节的技术创新效率呈增长趋势,设计、设备、材料环节的技术创新效率呈下降趋势;(3)从投入冗余来看,研发人员和固定资产投入冗余情况较为突出,研发费用投入冗余不显著。本文补充了半导体产业技术创新的定量研究,并进一步拓展了其研究视角,为优化半导体产业资源配置、提升技术创新效率提供切实可行的实证依据与政策建议。
The current severe international competition pattern has made China's semiconductor industry face unprecedented challenges, and improving its technological innovation efficiency has become the focus of discussion by experts and scholars from all walks of life. Based on the relevant data of technological innovation input and output of 76 listed enterprises in China's semiconductor industry from 2019 to 2022, this paper classified the listed companies in the semiconductor industry into five links: design, fabricate, assembly and test, equipment and materials, and used the BCC-DEA and Malmquist-DEA models to conduct a static and dynamic evaluation analysis and investment redundancy analysis of the technological innovation efficiency of the whole industry and all links of the industrial chain. The results showed that: (1) From the static perspective, the overall technological innovation efficiency of listed enterprises in China's semiconductor industry is not high. Although pure technical efficiency is improving, the number of DEA effective enterprises is declining, less than 1/5 of the total. The average value of technological innovation efficiency in design, equipment and materials is higher than the industry average, and the technological innovation efficiency in fabricate and assembly and test is relatively weak. (2) From the perspective of dynamics, the total factor productivity of China's semiconductor industry fluctuates greatly and the overall technological innovation efficiency shows a downward trend, while that of fabrication and assembly and test shows an overall growth trend, and that of design, equipment and materials show a downward trend. (3) From the perspective of investment redundancy, the redundancy of R&D personnel and fixed assets investment is more prominent, and that of R&D expenditure is not significant. This paper will supplement the quantitative research on technological innovation in the semiconductor industry, further expand its research perspective, and provide practical empirical basis and policy recommendations for optimizing resource allocation in the semiconductor industry and improving the efficiency of technological innovation.
半导体产业 / 技术创新效率 / BCC-DEA模型 / Malmquist-DEA模型 / 评价
semiconductor industry / technological innovation efficiency / BCC-DEA model / Malmquist-DEA model / evaluation
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The irreplaceability of semiconductors and the current international political and economic situation have made how to achieve the rapid development of the semiconductor industry an urgent and important issue in China today. In 2014, the introduction of the " Outline for promoting the development of national integrated circuit industry ", which was mainly characterized by the top-level design of industrial development and the innovative increase of market-oriented policy tools, marked the development of Chinese semiconductor industry into a technologically strong growth. This stage is characterized by strengthening strengths and making up for weaknesses. From the perspective of new structural economics, the research uses the introduction of the "Outline" as a natural quasi-natural experiment, and builds a difference in differences model based on micro-enterprise-level panel data from 2012 to 2020 to empirically test the impacts of semiconductor industry policies on enterprise innovation performance. The test also considered the effects and duration of impacts, as well as different effects on heterogeneous enterprises. The research results show that the implementation of industrial policies has significant promoting effect on the innovation performance of semiconductor companies, especially exploratory innovation one. It also has a more significant positive effect on high-capital-intensive companies, non-state-owned companies, and growth-stage companies. Looking at a longer time window, the effect of the policy shows a trend of rising first and then falling situation. Therefore, it is concluded that the national large fund, investment and financing policies and other market-oriented policy tools can help the semiconductor industry to gradually transform into a comparative advantage industry; There are heterogeneity in the impacts of industrial policies on innovation of enterprises with different characteristics, and policy layout should follow the heterogeneity regulations. The promotion impacts of semiconductor industry policy on enterprise innovation performance increased first and then decreased. The early performance rise is related to the gradual emergence of policy effects and the lag of innovation output, while the subsequent decline is likely to be related to the diminishing marginal effect of direct intervention of industrial policies with the continuous improvement of the market, which should be paid attention to in industrial policy layout. The research contributions of this research are as follows. The potential comparative advantage characteristics of semiconductor industry are identified, which can be transformed into comparative advantage industry with the support of policy. The integration of the new structure economic theory into the related researches of industrial policy and enterprise innovation development provides empirical evidence for the combination of "promising government" and "effective market" proposed by the new structural economics. The function boundary of “two hands” in industrial innovation is explored by clarifying the effect of policy on heterogeneous enterprises and time effect. In addition, the conclusions of this research provide suggestions for policy making both in semiconductor and other similar industries. This research provides a new perspective and insight for studying the combination of "promising government" and "effective market" in promoting the development of industries with potential comparative advantages into industries with realistic comparative advantages, and the boundary of the role of "two hands" in industrial innovation. It also provide an reference for the country to formulate and optimize industrial policies and achieve precise policy implementation.
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In management contexts, mathematical programming is usually used to evaluate a collection of possible alternative courses of action en route to selecting one which is best. In this capacity, mathematical programming serves as a planning aid to management. Data Envelopment Analysis reverses this role and employs mathematical programming to obtain ex post facto evaluations of the relative efficiency of management accomplishments, however they may have been planned or executed. Mathematical programming is thereby extended for use as a tool for control and evaluation of past accomplishments as well as a tool to aid in planning future activities. The CCR ratio form introduced by Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes, as part of their Data Envelopment Analysis approach, comprehends both technical and scale inefficiencies via the optimal value of the ratio form, as obtained directly from the data without requiring a priori specification of weights and/or explicit delineation of assumed functional forms of relations between inputs and outputs. A separation into technical and scale efficiencies is accomplished by the methods developed in this paper without altering the latter conditions for use of DEA directly on observational data. Technical inefficiencies are identified with failures to achieve best possible output levels and/or usage of excessive amounts of inputs. Methods for identifying and correcting the magnitudes of these inefficiencies, as supplied in prior work, are illustrated. In the present paper, a new separate variable is introduced which makes it possible to determine whether operations were conducted in regions of increasing, constant or decreasing returns to scale (in multiple input and multiple output situations). The results are discussed and related not only to classical (single output) economics but also to more modern versions of economics which are identified with “contestable market theories.”
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