The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies

Science Research Management ›› 2008, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 12-18 .

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The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies

Yin Lu, Li Tianzhu

School of Management, University of Electronic Science & Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China

Received:2007-07-09 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-11-20 Published:2008-11-20

Abstract

Abstract: Aimed at the current status that the existing assessment methods for emerging technologies are insufficient, the ideas and methodologies using scenario planning in dynamic assessment for emerging technologies are analyzed. Then, on this basis, a model of the dynamic assessment process for emerging technologies is developed. And a technology named MagicStor is taken as a instance; the traitsand application process of the model are illustrated.

Key words: scenario planning, emerging technology, uncertainty, dynamic assessment

CLC Number:

F062.3

Yin Lu, Li Tianzhu

. The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies [J]. Science Research Management, 2008, 29(4): 12-18 .

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The application of scenario planning for the dynamic assessment of emerging technologies

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