Energy supply security is the basis for sustainable development of national economy, and directly related to the country's stability and harmonization. In recent years, with the contradiction between supply and demand of energy resources being more serious, energy security gradually becomes the focus of academic research problems. This paper uses the System Dynamics Theory to construct the energy security system dynamics model of China, through regulating parameters of the industry, economy, population and environment subsystem in order to predict the dynamic changes of variables such as energy production, energy consumption, energy supply-demand gap and energy strategic reserve, and draws three development patterns of energy security system. The research results show that: if the control parameters are kept unchanged, the stability of Chinese current energy security system will be difficult to sustain; and if the control parameters are adjusted, we simulate two development patterns of energy security system under Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Compared with scenario 'current', from a long-term perspective, the stability of energy security system under Scenario 1 is better because of an increase of the national energy strategic reserve; in the short term, the stability of energy security system under Scenario 2 is better due to continuous increase of energy production, but in the long run, the stability of Chinese energy security system will be threatened because of the national energy strategic reserve reduction. According to the results, the paper puts forward some measures for developing the energy security system stably and healthily, such as establishing national energy statistical management account, strengthening energy strategic reserve and speeding up new energy and renewable energy use.
Key words
energy security system /
simulating /
system dynamic
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