Abstract: This paper analyzed the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation of the high-tech industry under the influence of the independent R&D and the technology import based on the co-integration and error correction model in the form of panel data. The results indicate that the expenditure on the independent R&D has a significant positive influence on the growth of the high-tech industry in the short- and long-terms. The time interval of the impact of the expenditure on the technology import on the growth of the high-tech industry shortens gradually while its promoting effects to the output of the high-tech enterprises appear in the long run. Moreover, this paper studied the dynamic change path of the high-tech industry output under the impact of the independent R&D and the technology import by use of the impulse response function based on the structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR) in three cases: the entire high-tech industry, the large-size high-tech enterprises and the medium-sized high-tech enterprises. Seen from the fluctuation degree, the medium-sized high-tech enterprises have experienced the largest fluctuation after receiving the impacts from the independent R&D and technology import while the large-size high-tech enterprises and the entire high-tech industry rank the second and the third in fluctuation respectively.

Key words: independent R&D, technology import, high-tech industry