科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 64-72.DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2025.02.007

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

地区产业多样化的组态路径研究——基于AIS框架的分析

王燕武1,2，邹乐欢2，莫长炜3   

  1. 1.厦门大学宏观经济研究中心，福建 厦门361005；
    2.厦门大学邹至庄经济研究院，福建 厦门361005；
    3.厦门大学经济学院，福建 厦门361005

  • 收稿日期:2023-12-01 修回日期:2024-12-20 出版日期:2025-02-20 发布日期:2025-02-11
  • 通讯作者: 莫长炜
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目：“数字经济对地区产业路径发展的作用机制与对策研究”（22BJY214，2022.01—2025.12）。

Research on the configuration path of regional industrial diversification: An analysis based on the AIS framework

Wang Yanwu1,2, Zou Lehuan2, Mo Changwei3   

  1. 1. Center for Macroeconomic Research, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China;
     2. The Paula and Gregory Chow Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China;
    3. School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China
  • Received:2023-12-01 Revised:2024-12-20 Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-02-11

摘要：    在国际贸易保护主义抬头、全球供应链断裂风险加剧以及数字技术革命加速推进的背景下，如何促进产业多样化发展以提升地区经济韧性和推动经济可持续发展已成为当前学术界和政策制定者共同关注的重要问题。本文通过整合演化经济地理理论、新制度社会学、经济地理与城市经济学等相关研究构建了一个决定地区产业多样化的AIS理论框架，并以中国273个城市为样本，运用模糊集定性比较分析，识别了实现高产业多样化的组态路径。研究发现：（1）地区高产业多样化是多种前因条件协同作用的结果。其中，城市创新能力发挥着更为普遍性的作用。（2）地区高产业多样化存在多条等效实现路径。高无关多样化路径包括变革型能动性驱动路径以及自由化市场制度驱动路径；而高相关多样化路径包括双重制度干预型驱动路径、协调制度下内源性创新驱动路径以及大城市数字经济驱动路径。本研究揭示了地区产业多样化发展的组态逻辑，深化了对地区产业路径发展理论的理解，为各地区因地制宜地选择产业多样化实现路径提供了理论基础。

关键词: 产业多样化, AIS框架, 模糊集定性比较分析

Abstract:    In the context of rising international trade protectionism, increasing risks of global supply chain disruptions, and the accelerated digital technology revolution, promoting industrial diversification to enhance regional economic resilience and promote sustainable economic development has become a common concern among both academics and policymakers.Building upon the integration of evolutionary economic geography theory, new institutional sociology, economic geography, and urban economics, this paper constructed an AIS theoretical framework that determines regional industrial diversification. Using 273 Chinese cities as a sample, it employed the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify the configurational paths leading to high levels of industrial diversification. The research results showed that: (1) Regional high-level industrial diversification is the result of the synergistic effects of multiple drivers, with city innovation capabilities play a more universal role; (2) There are multiple equivalent driving paths for achieving high-level industrial diversification. Specifically, high unrelated diversification paths include changing agency-driven paths and liberalized market institution-driven paths. For high related diversification, paths include dual institutional intervention-driven paths, coordinated institution-driven endogenous innovation paths, and large city digital economy-driven paths.This study has revealed the configurational logic of regional industrial diversification development, deepened the understanding of regional industrial diversification, and it will provide a theoretical foundation for regions to choose appropriate paths for achieving industrial diversification based on their local conditions.

Key words: industrial diversification, AIS framework, fsQCA