Abstract: Technological trajectory theory is an important theory for guiding the choice of technological innovation pathways, but it has some limitation. This paper puts forward “business model trajectory” concept, as well as analyzes its existence, formation process and innovation pathways through the comparison of JD.com case and Tmall.com case in Chinese retail industry. Based on the evolution of business model elements, the innovation pathway oriented by creating new operating model and profit model is the result of business model trajectory formation. Business model trajectory theory expands the technological trajectory theory and extends the opportunity space of choosing innovation pathways for late comers.

Key words: business model trajectory, technological trajectory, innovation path, catching-up opportunity