Science Research Management ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (11): 167-176.

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Development and evaluation of the system dynamics model of green growth strategy 

Qin Xiaonan1, Lu Xiaoli1,2   

  1. 1.Faculty of Management and Economics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, Liaoning, China;
    2.China Business Executive Academy, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2013-12-02 Revised:2016-08-03 Online:2016-11-20 Published:2016-11-17

Abstract: Abstract: This paper is a research subjects that how to evaluate and analyze the implementation performance of the green growth strategy and employs the system dynamic model to construct a system dynamics model of green growth strategy. This model takes the implementation effort of green growth strategy as control variable, takes the green welfare index as evaluation variables, and then forms an evaluation and simulation platform of green growth strategy armed to analyze the dynamic mechanism between the implementation effort and the implementation performance of the green growth strategy. The research result shows: the actual implementation effort is 0.17 approximately, which reflects the green growth strategy isn`t important strategy in our public strategies; the optimal implementation effort is 0.55; the gap of the implementation effort is 69%. And then, this paper analyzed the difference of the three indexes` evolution curves (the consume index, environmental services index, green welfare index) between in the actual green growth strategy and in the optimal green growth strategy. The result shows: in the optimal green growth strategy, the increase of environment service index is the main pulling power of the green welfare index; the curve of the consumer index is consistence with the curve of the green welfare index; which reflects the optimal green growth strategy should be continuous to improve the quality of the people's lives, and optimize the people's production and living environment. The curves of the three indexes show the gradual convergence trend,which characterizes that the ultimate goal of the optimal green growth strategy is the collaborative optimization and the harmonious development among ecological environment, people's living standard and the green welfare standard.

Key words: green growth strategy, system dynamics model, implementation effort of green growth strategy, green welfare index