Science Research Management

Science Research Management ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 13-20.

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The evolution trajectory and early identification of disruptive technology by taking smartphones and other technologies as an example

Su Jingqin1, Liu Jianhua2, Wang Zhiqi3, Chen Yue3, Jiang Zhaohua3   

  1. 1. School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China;
    2.School of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450000, Henan, China;
    3. Research Institute for Science of Science and S&T Management，
    Dalian University of Technology，WESLAB，Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China
  • Online:2016-03-20 Published:2016-03-09

Abstract: Based on the theory of technology trajectory, this paper, by taking how smartphone technology subverts the traditional mobile phone technology as an example, analyzes the JΛL curve of the amount of patents, patent citation and patent citation rate over time by patents’ citation information, which is crawled down by applying the Python programming in Derwent Innovation Index database. The result reveals the smartphone’s technology evolution trajectory, establishes the analysis framework of disruptive technology evolution and proposes the patent impact factor to realize the early identification of disruptive technology, hoping to provide researchers with useful information.

Key words: disruptive technology, patent impact factor, evolution trajectory, early identification