To overcome the disadvantages of existing evaluation methods for scientific research project selection, a new evaluation approach based on the evidential reasoning algorithm under multi-dimensional frames of discernment is proposed. According to the logical relationship, the frames of discernment are distinguished to the parallel frame, progressive frame, and mixed frame. The comprehensive evaluation grade with the degree of familiarity and the funding advice plus the degree of familiarity in the peer review form are regarded as two parallel progressive frames and are transformed into pieces of evidence, where the peer reviews could be expressed by evaluation grades (funding advice) with belief. In this way, the incomplete information of peer reviews is able to be easily described and the valuable information of assessment could be fully integrated. Then the expert weights are given by the degree of familiarity and the peer reviews are integrated on two parallel frames, respectively by using the evidential reasoning operator. And then the evaluations of scientific research projects are quantified and selected. Finally, an example is given to check the validation of the approach.
Key words
scientific research project /
project selection /
multi-dimensional frame /
evidential reasoning
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
References
[1] 王其冬,武佩珍,程建刚等.层次分析法在国家自然科学基金项目评审中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2001(7): 119-124.
[2] 陈学中,盛昭瀚,李文喜.科研项目选择的0-1目标规划模型[J].科研管理, 2005, 26 (4): 117-121.
[3] 张坚,黄现,陶树人.基于遗传算法的R&D项目实物期权评价模型[J].科研管理, 2004, 25 (2): 44-48.
[4] 肖健华,吴今培,陈世权.一种应用聚类分析的科研立项评审数据处理方法[J].科研管理, 2000, 21 (3): 82-87.
[5] 樊宏,陈世权.基于DEA算法的科研评审排序方法与应用[J].科研管理, 2002, 23 (4) : 65-69.
[6] 肖人毅, 王长锐. 科研基金项目立项评估方法的研究与改进[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2004(5):66-71.
[7] 王雄, 吴庆田. 基于模糊语言的科研基金项目立项评估研究[J]. 科技进步与对策,2007(9):61-63.
[8] 张守华,孙兆辉,祝志明. 层次灰色方法在科研项目评估中的应用研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2005,27(10): 1744-1747.
[9] 肖健华,吴今培.基于粗糙集理论的科研立项总结评价方法[J].科研管理,2001,22(5): 8-12.
[10] Shafer G. A mathematical theory of evidence [M]. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 1976.
[11] 段新生. 证据理论与决策、人工智能[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1993.
[12] Yang J B, Xu D L. On the evidential reasoning algorithm for multiple attribute decision analysis under uncertainty [J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics-Part A,2002,32(3):289-304.
[13] 徐泽水, 达庆利. 区间数排序的可能度法及其应用[J]. 系统工程学报, 2003,18(1):67-70.
[14] 刘克, 王成红, 何杰, 宋苏. 国家自然科学基金面上项目通讯评议结果的公平化处理[J]. 中国科学基金,2003(4):234-237.
[15] 陈晓田.国家自然科学基金与我国管理科学(1986-2008)[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.