Abstract:     Disruptive technology has become an important starting point to promote a new round of technological change. Accurate identification of disruptive technology is of great significance to grasp the opportunities of technological change and then to lay out technological innovation strategies. Existing research focuses on the single-dimensional characteristics of technology or market, and the systematic identification method of the comprehensive "technology-market" dimension is still in the exploratory stage. Therefore, this paper started from the characteristics of disruptive technologies, constructed a systematic identification method based on patent mining and Gompertz model, and conducted empirical research and robustness testing. The research findings are as follows: (1) Disruptive technology has the dual dimension feature of the "technology market", which can be identified layer by layer in a "funnel" manner around four basic characteristics: cutting-edge, uniqueness, influence, and diffusion. (2) A systematic identification method for disruptive technologies was adopted based on patent mining and the Gompertz model, which can achieve systematic identification of disruptive technologies. (3) The empirical research on power lithium battery technology showed that the disruptive technology identification method constructed in this paper can improve the efficiency of the identification process and the accuracy of the identification results, effectively overcoming the limitations of subjective judgment. This method has made a breakthrough to the limitations of incomplete feature information acquisition and low accuracy of recognition results in existing recognition methods, aiming to provide more scientific method support for early recognition of disruptive technologies.  

Key words: disruptive technology, patent mining, Gompertz model, technology identification