Technological innovation is an important way to improve economic development and enhance the countries′ innovation competitiveness. The transformation efficiency of resource inputs to innovation outputs is a vital factor of national innovation development. It is worth noting that innovation is a value chain transfer process with multi-stages, from resource inputs to innovation outputs. But innovation value does not happen immediately when the organizations invest innovation resources, such as R&D funding, human resources, there is a lag period. This lag period leads to the time-lag effect at multi-stage innovation value chain. Therefore, it is meaningful to accurately evaluate the time-lag effect of value conversion in each stage. Calculating lag period is not only good at understanding the present situation of China′s innovation value transformation, but also providing parameters for the innovation efficiency measurement model. Additionally, the most important is that it can provide valuable decision-making basis for resource allocation of governments and innovation organizations.The time-lag effects express discriminating meanings during the different stages of innovation value transformation. This paper proposes a method to calculate the lag period based on the relationship between the similarity of time-series network and the time-lag effect of value conversion system. In this paper, we divide the transformation in innovation value chain into three stages: knowledge development, technical transformation and industrialization. Firstly, we prove the relationship between the time-lag effect of the innovation value conversion system and the time-series vector. Secondly, we build the inputs and outputs networks separately using the time series data and following the time series visualization approach. Thirdly, the network similarity between inputs and outputs is calculated by using the cosine similarity theorem. Then the optimal mapping solution indicate the lag period. Finally, an empirical study on time-lag effect in China′s provinces innovation value transformation is established to show the feasibility of our approach. We select data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet because of a lack of data). The time coverage of all research data is 1998 to 2016. In the start of the innovation stage, knowledge development stage, R&D investment and scientific research personnel full-time equivalent are considered the initial inputs. Considering the innovative outputs in the knowledge development stage include patents and research papers, this paper has produced two innovative value transformation chains. One is from inputs to the number of patent grants (K1), then vary to high-tech industry new product sales (T1), finally output the high-tech output value (I) (namely ‘patent-driven’). The other one from the same inputs, capitals and human resources, but transform into to research papers in the knowledge generation phase, then produce high-tech industry new product sales (T2) and the proportion of high-tech output (I) gradually (namely ‘paper-driven’).This research draws the following conclusions. (1) The time-lag effect of the innovation value conversion system is related to the time-series network structure of the input-output vector. The similarity between inputs and outputs time-series network can reflect the mapping relationship of the value conversion parameter. In addition, the maximum similarity reflects the time-lag effect, and years who have the maximum similarity reveal the lag period. (2) The average time-lag period of knowledge development stage, technical transformation stage and industrialization stage are 3-4 years, 2-3 years and 3-4 years respectively. The patent-driven and paper-driven value conversion period is about 8.66 years and 9.66 years separately. The lag period of value transformation with paper-driven chain is more stable, but the collaboration effect between scientific papers and new products sales is fluctuating. Because scientific papers are results which explore different principles of technological innovation, while the new product is the technical program finally realized. They are not always synchronized at the same stage. (3) Comparing the lag period of each province with the national average, we can divide the innovation path into four categories. Dual-path driven means the province′s conversion time in both innovative value chains is faster than the national average. If the province′s patent-driven innovation value conversion has a short time lag, it names a patent-driven innovation. Instead, it is called paper-driven innovation. The remaining provinces have longer conversion time. In 30 provinces, 11 provinces′ innovation are dual-path driven, 9 provinces are paper-driven innovation, and 2 provinces are patent-driven. (4) Further analyzing the stage differences of lag period, this paper finds the lag period in industrialization stage is longest at most provinces. This indicates that it takes a long time to materialize an industrial production project. Meanwhile, the lag period in knowledge development stage and industrialization stage are complementary. The provinces with longer lag period in knowledge development stage have shorter lag period in industrialization stage.Based on designing an approach to measure the lag period and time-lag effects on innovation value transformation, this paper also extends the suggestions on government policies in the following ways. Firstly, the governments can distribute their input resources to the distinct innovation stages according to the lag period of value transformation. Secondly, pay more attention to the regional innovation collaboration. Finally, the complementary phenomenon of the lag period between the knowledge development stage and the industrialization stage provides some recommendations for innovation management. Establishing a collaboration innovation network between universities, research institutions and enterprises can improve value conversion efficiency. This paper contributes to the existing literature in several ways. Theoretically, this paper establishes an analysis framework for time-lag effects of innovation value transformation systems. Then this paper demonstrates the mapping relationship between the parameter vector and the time-series network structure. Meanwhile, a method for calculation the time-lag effect and the lag period is also designed. It provides a direction and feasible way to study the multi-stage time-lag effect from the perspective of time-series network, and enriches the complex network application research system. Practically, we measure the lag period of each stage of the transformation of innovation value in China′s provinces. In addition, the results not only propose the path and direction for improving the innovation efficiency of value conversion, but also can be used to configure the lag period for the input-output analysis model.
Key words
innovative value chain /
multi-stage time-lag effect /
lag period /
time series network /
cosine similarity
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
References
[1]洪银兴. 进入新阶段后中国经济发展理论的重大创新[J]. 中国工业经济, 2017(5)5-15
[2]黄钢,徐玖平,李颖.科技价值链及创新主体链接模式[J].中国软科学, 2006(6):67-75
[3]刘希宋,李玥喻登科.基于FTA 的国防工业科技成果转化知识对接障碍研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2009(2):101-105
[4]Wang N., Hagedoorn J. The Lag Structure of the Relationship between Patenting and Internal R&D Revisited[J].Research Policy,2014,43(8):1275-1285
[5]Moralles H. F.,Rebelatto D. A. N. The Effects and Time Lags of R&D Spillovers in Brazil[J]. Technology in Society, 2016,47(1) :148-155
[6]Lee T. H., Zhang Y. S., Jeong B.H. A Multi-period Output DEA Model with Consistent Time Lag Effects[J]. Computer & Industrial Engineering, 2016,93(1) : 267-274
[7]高军,索玮岚.科研机构科技资源投入与产出的多阶段时滞效应研究[J].管理评论, 2018,30(08):69-78.
[8]Freeman C. Technology Policy and Economic Performance: Lessons from Japan[J]. London: Pinter, 1987:139-149
[9]郑坚. 高技术产业技术创新效率评价的改进DEA方法研究[D]. 哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文, 2008
[10]余泳泽. 我国髙技术产业技术创新效率及其影响因素研究—基于价值链视角下的两阶段分析[J]. 经济科学,2009(4):62-74
[11]肖仁桥,钱丽,陈忠卫. 中国高技术产业创新效率及其影响因素研究[J]. 管理科学, 2012,25(5):85-98
[12]陈羽洁,赵红岩,俞明传. 中国创意产业创新效率及影响因素——基于两阶段DEA模型[J]. 经济地理, 2018, 38(7):117-125
[13]索玮岚, 高军, 陈锐. 科研机构科技资源使用效益评估研究——基于时滞效应和关联效应视角[J]. 科学学研究, 2015,33(2):234-241
[14]Hage J, Hollingsworth J R. A strategy for the analysis of ideas: Innovation networks and institutions[J]. Organization Studies, 2000, 21(5):971-1004
[15]Roper S, Du J, Love J H. Modeling the innovation value chain[J].Research Policy, 2008, 37(7):961-977
[16]Turkenburg W C. The Innovation Chain: Policies to Promote Energy Innovation, Energy for Sustainable Development[M]. New York: The UN Publication, 2002
[17]Hansen, M. T. and Birkinshaw, J. The Innovation Value Chain[J]. Harvard Business Review,2007,85(6):121-135.
[18]刘家树,菅利荣. 知识来源、知识产出与科技成果转化绩效——基于创新价值链的视角[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2011,32(06):33-40
[19]余泳泽,刘大勇. 我国区域创新效率的空间外溢效应与价值链外溢效应——创新价值链视角下的多维空间面板模型研究[J]. 管理世界, 2013(7):6-20
[20]杜江. 科技金融对科技创新影响的空间效应分析[J]. 软科学, 2017(4):19–36
[21]韩先锋,惠宁,宋文飞. 信息化能提高中国工业部门技术创新效率吗[J]. 中国工业经济, 2014(12):70-82
[22]薛晔,蔺琦珠,高晓艳. 中国科技金融发展效率测算及影响因素分析[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2017(4):109-116.
[23]张玉喜,赵丽丽. 中国科技金融投入对科技创新的作用效果——基于静态和动态面板数据模型的实证研究[J]. 科学学研究, 2015(2):177-184
[24]徐维祥,杨蕾,刘程军. 长江经济带创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因[J]. 地理科学,2017(4): 502-511
[25]肖文,林高榜. 政府支持、研发管理与技术创新效率——基于中国工业行业的实证分析[J]. 管理世界, 2014(4):71-80
[26]朱远程,王磊. 论企业R&D支出与企业技术市场成交额的关系[J]. 科学学研究, 2005(S1):141-145
[27]简晓彬,车冰清,仇方道. 装备制造业集群式创新效率及影响因素——以江苏为例[J]. 经济地理, 2018,38(7):100-109
[28]杨明海,张红霞,孙亚男,李倩倩. 中国八大综合经济区科技创新能力的区域差距及其影响因素研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2018(4):3-19
[29]王仁祥,杨曼. 中国省域科技与金融耦合效率的时空演进[J]. 经济地理,2018(2):104-112
[30]戴魁早,刘友金. 市场化进程对创新效率的影响及行业差异——基于中国高技术产业的实证检验[J]. 财经研究, 2013(5):4-16
[31]索玮岚,陆桂昌,陈锐. 高校科技资源配置效率测度研究——基于共享投入关联网络DEA 模型[J]. 科研管理,2015,36(11):155-161
[32]倪渊.基于滞后非径向超效率DEA的高校科研效率评价研究[J].管理评论,2016,28(11):85-94.
[33]陶长琪,李翠,王春晨. 创新价值链、全要素生产率及其空间溢出效应——基于SLM 模型的实证[J]. 数量经济研究, 2017(2):15-28
[34]赵志耘,杨朝峰. 转型时期中国高技术产业创新能力实证研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2013,(1):32-42
[35]朱有为,徐康宁. 中国高技术产业研发效率的实证研究[J]. 中国工业经济,2006(11):38-46
[36]刘树林,姜新蓬,余谦. 中国高技术卢业技术创新三阶段特征及其演变[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2015(7):104-116
[37]Watts D J, Strogatz S H. Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks[C]. Nature, 1998.
[38]Lacasa L, Luque B, Ballesteros F, et al. From Time Series to Complex Networks: The Visibility Graph[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008, 105(13):4972-4975
[39]姜雅文,贾彩燕,于剑. 基于节点相似度的网络社团检测算法研究[J]. 计算机科学, 2011,38(7):185-189