关键词: 双循环, 高技术产业, 创新韧性, 外贸出口, 国内需求

Abstract:    At present, China is under the dual effects of internal environmental changes that transform economic construction into high-quality development and external shocks such as epidemics and international trade frustration. The emergence of the dual-cycle strategy has put forward higher requirements for high-tech industry innovation. How to deal with the impact of shocks and stabilize the innovation system of high-tech industries. The resilience research provides a new perspective. The resilience theory emphasizes the optimization of the system′s resistance and balance to external shocks. It studies the impact of innovation resilience on high-tech industries in the context of dual cycles. The influence of development is very important to stable economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss the following aspects: First, there is no relevant research on innovation resilience at this stage. What is innovation resilience? How to measure innovation resilience? Second, what is the impact mechanism of innovation resilience on the output of high-tech industries (foreign trade exports, domestic demand)? What are the characteristics and laws of its influence? Third, under the dual-cycle background, the competition status of enterprises in the international and domestic markets is different, which will inevitably lead to different degrees of impact of innovation resilience on domestic demand and foreign trade exports. Does innovation resilience affect foreign trade demand or domestic demand more?
    This article first defines "innovation resilience" on the basis of related research on "resilience" and "economic resilience", that is, the ability of innovation to withstand external shocks and maintain system stability, restore or even evolve to a higher functional state. Second, refer to the core variable method of economic resilience measurement to measure innovation resilience, draw on the research paradigm proposed by Martin in 2019, and select the sales revenue of new products that measure the effects of innovation activities as the core variable. Subsequently, taking the high-tech industry as the research object, analyze the impact mechanism of innovation resilience on the output (foreign trade, domestic demand) of the high-tech industry. In the mechanism of the impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports, positive mechanisms include innovation agglomeration effects, knowledge spillover effects, increased levels of R&D expenditures, innovation costs reduction, improved competitive advantages, and optimization of the trade environment. Negative mechanisms include cost accumulation effects and technological competition. Effect, knowledge crowding effect; in the mechanism of the impact of innovation resilience on domestic demand, the positive mechanism includes the input compensation effect, the innovation agglomeration effect, the resource allocation effect, the knowledge accumulation effect, and the optimization of innovation management. The negative mechanism includes: cost accumulation effect, knowledge crowding effect; at the same time, foreign trade exports and domestic demand also have feedback mechanisms for innovation resilience, including feedback enhancement effects and economies of scale.
    This paper uses the high-tech industry data to study the linear and non-linear relationship between innovation resilience and high-tech industry output (foreign trade exports, domestic demand) through panel data models and panel threshold models, and uses BP-artificial neural networks to test the robustness. Determine the degree of impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports and domestic demand. The results of the study found that: First, the impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports is negative, and has no impact on domestic demand; second, under low-level foreign trade exports, innovation resilience is not conducive to foreign trade exports; third, innovation resilience increases, which has no effect on domestic demand. The negative effect of foreign trade exports is reduced; fourth, innovation resilience is positively acting on domestic demand, which requires greater domestic demand; fifth, innovation resilience is positively acting on domestic demand and requires maintaining moderate innovation resilience.

Key words: dual cycle, high-tech industry, innovation resilience, foreign trade export, domestic demand