中国新能源汽车产业政策变迁及阶段特征研究

doi:10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2025.06.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在中国新能源汽车产业的发展进程中，产业政策在发展方向引领、资源要素分配等方面发挥了至关重要的作用。但已有研究对于产业政策变迁过程和特征分析的维度较为单一。因此本文从政策变迁视角出发，提出了基于产业政策目的性、方向性和导向性的三维分析框架。基于计算文本量化分析方法分析了2007年到2023年颁布的1783条新能源汽车产业政策。采用无监督式机器学习LDA主题建模刻画了中国新能源汽车产业政策的变迁过程，使用监督式学习随机森林算法对政策类型进行预测划分并总结政策分布的阶段性特征。研究发现：（1）中国新能源汽车产业政策经历了由初始阶段到快速推广阶段再到高质量发展阶段的变迁过程，政策分布从初期的分散和不平衡过渡到更加集中和均衡的状态；（2）产业政策整体以选择性、区域性和市场导向为主，但政策变化呈现出向功能性、行业性、技术导向逐渐转移的趋势；（3）政策变迁过程表现出市场准入制度趋于成熟、财政补贴精准化、基础设施建设日益重视、信息化与智能化趋势加强的特征。本文拓展了政策变迁研究的理论视角，完善了政策工具的分析框架，丰富了产业政策变迁特征和规律的分析方法，同时亦对产业政策优化提供实践启示。

关键词: 新能源汽车, 产业政策, 政策变迁, 机器学习

Abstract: Industrial policy plays a crucial role in leading the development direction and allocating resource elements of China′s NEV industry. However, the dimensions of existing studies on industrial policy change and characterization are relatively single. Therefore, this paper proposed a three-dimensional analytical framework based on the purposefulness, direction and orientation of industrial policies from the perspective of policy evolution. The 1783 NEV industrial policies enacted from 2007 to 2023 are analyzed based on the computational text quantitative analysis method. Unsupervised machine learning LDA topic modeling was used to portray the evolution process of China′s NEV industrial policies, and the supervised learning random forest algorithm was used to predict and classify the policy types and summarize the stage characteristics of policy distribution. The study found that: (1) China′s NEV industrial policy has gone through a process of change from the initial stage to the rapid promotion stage to the high-quality development stage, and the distribution of policies has transitioned from the initial fragmentation and imbalance to a more centralized and balanced state. (2) The policies are mainly selective, regional and market-oriented, but the policy changes show a trend of gradual transfer to functional, industrial and technology-oriented. (3) The process of policy change shows the characteristics of market access system tends to be mature, financial subsidies oriented to be precise, infrastructure construction is increasingly important, and the trend of informationization and intelligence is strengthened. This paper has expanded the theoretical perspective of policy change research, improved the analytical framework of policy tools, enriched the analytical methods of industrial policy change characteristics and laws, and it will provide some practical insights for industrial policy optimization.

Key words: new energy vehicle, industry policy, policy evolution, machine learning

刘泽琨江采欣. 中国新能源汽车产业政策变迁及阶段特征研究[J]. 科研管理, 2025, 46(6): 146-156.

Liu Zekun, Jiang Caixin. Research on the evolution and stage characteristics of China′s new energy vehicle industry policies[J]. Science Research Management, 2025, 46(6): 146-156.

参考文献

[1]国务院办公厅.国务院办公厅关于印发新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021—2035年）的通知[EB/OL]. [2023-11-02]. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2020-11/02/content_5556716.htm. [2]人民日报.全球电动汽车销量强劲增长中国成为主要推动力[EB/OL]. [2023-11-02]. http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2023-03/01/nw.D110000renmrb_20230301_1-17.htm. [3]薛澜, 蒋凌飞.纯电动乘用车选择性产业政策成效分析——对产业政策制定与执行的启示[J].中国科技论坛, 2017, (10):80-87 [4]周燕, 潘遥.财政补贴与税收减免——交易费用视角下的新能源汽车产业政策分析[J].管理世界, 2019, 35(10):133-149 [5]高秀平, 彭月兰.我国新能源汽车财税政策效应与时变研究——基于A股新能源汽车上市公司的实证分析[J].经济问题, 2018, (01):49-56 [6]McDonnell L, Elmore R.Alternative policy instruments[M]. CA: Center for Policy Research in Education, 1987. [7]Zhou L, Dai D, Ren J, et al.What is policy content and how is the public' s policy support? A policy cognition study based on natural language processing and social psychology[J].Frontiers in Psychology, 2022, (13):941762-941762 [8]Anderson J E.Public Policymaking: An Introduction[M]. Boston: Houghton Miffin, 1990. [9]Peter H.Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State: The Case of Economic Policymaking in Britain[J]. Comparative Politics, 1993(3):275-296. [10]Bennett C J, Howlett M.The lessons of learning: Reconciling theories of policy learning and policy change[J]. Policy Sciences, 1992(3):275-294. [11]Howlett M, Cashore B.The Dependent Variable Problem in the Study of Policy Change: Understanding Policy Change as a Methodological Problem[J].Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 2009, 11(1):33-46 [12]Bauer M, Knill C.A Conceptual Framework for the Comparative Analysis of Policy Change: Measurement,Explanation and Strategies of Policy Dismantling[J].Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 2014, 16(1):28-44 [13]Hogwood B, Peters G.Policy Dynamics[M]. New York: St.Martin' s Press, 1983. [14]杨代福.西方政策变迁研究:三十年回顾[J]. 国家行政学院学报, 2007(04):104-108. [15]约翰·金登.议程、备选方案与公共政策[M]. 丁煌, 方兴, 译. 中国人民大学出版社, 2004. [16]Baumgartner F, Jones B D.Agendas and Instability in American Politics[M]. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993. [17]Sabatier P, Jenkins-Smith H.Policy Change and Learning：A Advocacy Coalition Approach[M]. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993. [18]王洛忠, 张艺君.我国新能源汽车产业政策协同问题研究——基于结构、过程与内容的三维框架[J]. 中国行政管理, 2017(03):101-107. [19]张蕾, 秦全德, 谢丽娇.中国新能源汽车产业的政策协同研究——评估与演化[J].北京理工大学学报社会科学版, 2020, 22(03):26-35 [20]庞德良, 卜睿, 刘兆国.我国新能源汽车产业制度安排演进与优化建议[J]. 经济纵横, 2022(4):106-115. [21]李苏秀, 刘颖琦, 王静宇, 等.基于市场表现的中国新能源汽车产业发展政策剖析[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(09):158-166 [22]王薇, 刘云.基于内容分析法的我国新能源汽车产业发展政策分析[J].科研管理, 2017, 38(S1):581-591 [23]Hao H, Ou X, Du J, et al.China' s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts[J]. Energy Policy, 2014, 73:722-732. [24]Zhang X, Wang K, Hao Y, et al.The impact of government policy on preference for NEVs: The evidence from China[J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 61:382-393. [25]白恩来, 赵玉林.产业政策的宏观有效性与微观异质性实证分析[J].科研管理, 2018, 39(9):11-19 [26]Rothwell R, Zegveld W.Reindustrialization and technology[M]. London: Logman Group Limited, 1985. [27]Howlett M, Ramesh M.Studying public policy: policy cycles and policy subsystems[M]. Shanghai: SDX Joint Publishing Company, 2006. [28]江飞涛, 李晓萍.直接干预市场与限制竞争:中国产业政策的取向与根本缺陷[J]. 中国工业经济, 2010(09):26-36. [29]顾昕, 张建君.挑选赢家还是提供服务?——产业政策的制度基础与施政选择[J]. 经济社会体制比较, 2014(01):231-241. [30]吴敬琏.产业政策面临的问题:不是存废, 而是转型[J].兰州大学学报社会科学版, 2017, 45(06):1-9 [31]江飞涛, 李晓萍.改革开放四十年中国产业政策演进与发展——兼论中国产业政策体系的转型[J].管理世界, 2018, 34(10):73-85 [32]林毅夫.产业政策与我国经济的发展:新结构经济学的视角[J].复旦学报社会科学版, 2017, 59(02):148-153 [33]Liu C, Li L.Place-based techno-industrial policy and innovation: Government responses to the information revolution in China[J]. China Economic Review, 2021, 66:101600. [34]林毅夫, 向为, 余淼杰.区域型产业政策与企业生产率[J].经济学季刊, 2018, 17(2):781-800 [35]Cohen E.Industrial Policies in France: The Old and the New[J]. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 2007(7):213-227. [36]Bailey D, Driffield N, Kispeter E.Brexit,foreign investment and employment: some implications for industrial policy?[J].Contemporary Social Science, 2019, 14(2):174-188 [37]Aiginger K, Rodrik D.Rebirth of industrial policy and an agenda for the twenty-first century[J]. Journal of industry, competition and trade, 2020, 20:189-207. [38]Lall S.Technological Capabilities and Industrialization[J].World development, 1992, 20(2):165-186 [39]何佳讯, 葛佳烨, 张凡.中国学者管理学研究的世界贡献：国际合作、前沿热点与贡献路径——基于世界千种管理学英文期刊论文～年的定量分析[J].管理世界, 2021, 37(09):36-67 [40]Cunningham, Pádraig, Cord M, et al.Supervised learning[M]. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. [41]刘文强, 栾群, 王星.从零起步到智能网联:新中国70年汽车产业政策回顾与展望[J]. 经济纵横, 2019(10):42-52.