Science Research Management ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 247-256.

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Estimation of the contribution of talent aggregation on economic growth in provincial regions of China

He Yong,Liao Nuo, Zhang Zijun   

  1. School of Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510520, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2017-08-04 Revised:2018-02-25 Online:2019-11-20 Published:2019-11-25

Abstract: As an important resource, talent has become a core element in economic growth. In the 30 years of China’s reform and opening up, the role of human resources in local economic growth mainly reflects its regional aggregation. For example, Beijing, Shanghai and some other provincial regions have always maintained the leading position of economic growth, mainly relying on the high level of talent aggregation. Talent resources are the essence of human resources with high-level knowledge and skill. They are the core of human resources and play a key role in promoting science and technology progress and economic growth. The key role is derived from the capital of talent resources, namely talent capital. Based on the theory of human capital and the specific practice in China, many scholars have carried out groundbreaking research on the theoretical system of talent aggregation and talent capital. They have carried out fruitful exploration on the relationship between talent aggregation and economic growth, as well as talent capital and economic growth. However, the research on talent aggregation and economic growth is not deep enough, which is only through qualitative description or correlation analysis of the time series to show the positive relationship. The research on the internal mechanism is lacking. The following issues should be solved. Why does talent aggregation have a positive effect on economic growth? What is the transmission path from talent aggregation to economic growth? In addition, the existing literature mainly focuses on the analysis of the contribution of talent aggregation on economic growth in a single region, and there lacks comprehensive comparative studies on multiple regions.
This paper takes talent capital as a bridge and constructs the "T-C-E" talent economic value conversion chain, namely "talent aggregation-talent capital-economic growth", and uses Shultz model and the extended Cobb-Douglas production function to calculate the talent aggregation, talent capital and the contribution rate to economic growth in 31 provincial regions in mainland China from 1990 to 2017. The clustering algorithm is adopted to construct the matrix of talent aggregation to the contribution rate of talent capital, to further analyze the mutual relationship. The corresponding policy implications are put forward according to the research results. Regarding to the "T-C-E" talent-economy conversion chain, in the talent aggregation-talent capital (T-C) calculation model, using the Shultz model of the education year method, the product of education years and productivity is used as the weight value, and then the number of people educated in different levels and the weight value are sum-weighted to obtain the total human capital stock. In the talent capital-economic growth (C-E) calculation model, the extended C-D function of human capital is used to simultaneously calculate the economic contribution rate of talent capital and the contribution rate of basic human capital and fixed capital to economic growth. Through the above methods, the talent aggregation, talent capital and the economic contribution rate of talent capital in 31 provincial regions of Mainland China are calculated. The matrix of talent aggregation-talent capital contribution rate is analyzed and the following conclusions are put forward:
First, the level of talent aggregation in 31 provincial regions in China is quite different, and the distribution of talents is uneven. From the perspective of talent aggregation, Beijing and Shanghai have the highest level of talent aggregation, with a mean value of 24.75% and 17.02% respectively. Qinghai has the lowest level of talent aggregation, and its mean value is only 1.70%. Second, there are significant differences in the contribution of talent capital on economic growth among provincial regions. The economic contribution rates of talent capital in 9 regions, such as Beijing and Tianjin, are more than 35%. The talent capital of these regions has a significant effect on economic growth. The contribution rates of talent capital in 8 regions, such as Ningxia and Anhui, are less than 10%, and in these regions, the contribution of talent capital to economic growth is not significant enough. The economic contribution rate of basic human capital has shown negative value in 17 regions, indicating that the basic human capital in these regions is decreasing along the years. Third, through the analysis on the matrix of talent aggregation-talent capital contribution rate, it indicates that, high-level talent aggregation tends to generate high economic growth contribution, medium-level talent aggregation may produce high, medium and low economic contribution, and low-level talent aggregation will generate low economic contribution. In general, regions with higher-level talent aggregation tend to have a relatively higher contribution rate to economic growth, but there is no strict positive relationship between them.
From the above conclusions, the following policy suggestions are proposed: first, in order to improve the economic contribution rate of talent capital, every provincial region should keep enhancing the talent aggregation, increasing the intensity of talent introduction and personnel training, to enhance the stock of talent capital. The policy of prioritizing human capital investment should be implemented, and higher education and on-the-job training should be developed vigorously to improve the quality of employed people. Second, talent resources should be rationally allocated, and the efficacy of human resources should take into effect fully. Government should promote the transformation of human resources into talent capital, to increase the stock of talent capital. Under the same level of talent aggregation, there are differences in the economic contribution of talent capital. When every region pays attention to the level of talent aggregation, it is also necessary to pay attention to talent capital, especially the high-end talents. Third, each region should coordinate the proportion of talent capital and fixed capital. There is a reasonable proportion between fixed capital and human capital in economic growth. Under this proportion, the economic output could have the highest growth rate. When increasing the investment of fixed capital, all regions should increase the investment and aggregation of human capital, in order to better promote the pattern transformation of economic growth.

Key words: talent aggregation, talent capital, economic growth, economic contribution rate