Abstract: In order to improve the lack of risk probability measurement in the risk management theory, and provide references for quantitative management in trade secret risks caused by tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation, the features of trade secret risk probability measurement caused by tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation are analyzed, and the combinition of evidential theory and subjective probability is selected to measure trade secret risk probability caused by tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation based on existing research on risk probability measurement. Then, the f(A_i)=Bel(A_i)+ (|A_i|/|Θ|) × [pl(A_i) - bel(A_i)] is proposed as an ultimate model to measure trade secret risk probability caused by tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation. Finally, a concrete calculative example is given.

Key words: collaborative technological innovation, tacit knowledge transferring, trade secret risk, probability measurement, evidential theory, subjective probability