Research on the relationship between technological progress and global advanced manufacturing trade network

Abstract

Abstract: Clarifying the trade network distribution of the intermediate products and final products of the global advanced manufacturing and its dynamic evolution process is beneficial to understanding and breaking trade shackles. This research aims to fill this gap and investigate the interdependency among technological progress, military strength and global advanced manufacturing trade network by using the global data of 43 countries (regions) obtained through network analysis from 2005-2014, a general equilibrium model, gravity models and the PPML-HDFE method.
In the light of empirical research, we can obtain the following results. First, the trade scale of intermediate products is significantly higher than final products in the whole decade, and the global trade in advanced manufacturing shows obvious power law tail characteristics. Then, the global intermediate products trade network of the global advanced manufacturing appears to have manifest core-periphery structures, and so have the final products trade network. In addition, DEU, CHN and USA rank TOP 3 in the importance of intermediate products trade networks, and so do DEU, CHN and ESP in final products trade networks. Furthermore, we also find that the influences of technological progress on the relative position of intermediate products and final products export in advanced manufacturing are significant negative, which is not in the traditional sense and means that the tendency of a country′s(region′s) technological progress is opposite to its relative position of export. Meanwhile, the relationship between technological progress and export trade is mediated by military strength.
Moreover, the influences of technological progress and military strength on the relative position of advanced manufacturing have heterogeneous characteristics of trade agreement signing and economic development. On the one hand, signing trade agreements between countries(regions) can significantly strengthen the negative effect of technological progress on the relative position of export trade of intermediate products of advanced manufacturing, however it may relieve the destructive effect of military strength on that of intermediate products and final products. Besides, signing trade agreements between countries(regions) can significantly weaken the negative effect of technological progress on the relative position of final products export. On the other hand, the more developed the countries(regions) are, the less likely they are to break the existing global pattern of export trade of advanced manufacturing. Much worse, the "crowding out effect" on the development of intermediate products export in advanced manufacturing may happen when these advantage countries(regions) blindly pursue technological progress.
This research extends the mechanism between technological progress and trade network of advanced manufacturing, and provides a new viewpoint for improving the structure and layout of the global advanced manufacturing and exploring its influencing factors. Above all, this paper reckons that the government ought to focus on the whole cycle of inter-regional trade of advanced manufacturing. Specifically, the periphery region should strengthen the regional trade links with sub-core regions and core regions, and further the trade cooperation of advanced manufacturing within the region to realize the "three cycles" of inter-region trade of advanced manufacturing, namely "the cycle between the core regions and sub-core regions", "the cycle between core regions", and "the cycle between the periphery regions and sub-core regions".

Key words: technological progress, advanced manufacturing, intermediate product, final product, trade network, PPML-HDFE method

Yang Wenke, Ma Qianting, He Jianmin, Su Yi, Zhao Yicheng. Research on the relationship between technological progress and global advanced manufacturing trade network[J]. Science Research Management, 2023, 44(7): 50-59.

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