Abstract: Organizational population extinction is a frequent occurrence and is inevitable. Analyzing thoroughly the cause of organizational population extinction has great theoretical value and practical significance. Researches on the tendency and process of organizational population extinction and analyses of the internal mechanism of influencing factors are helpful for the academia to have a deep understanding of organizational population extinction. Firstly, this paper lists the phenomena of realistic organizational population extinction in history, and then generalizes the reasons of organizational population extinction. Moreover, it analyzes the mechanisms of population extinction from aspects of organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity. Based on Organizational Ecology theory and System Dynamics theory, we utilize the system dynamics software Vensim to simulate the interactive effects of organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity on organizational population extinction.In theory, organizational population density equals to zero when carrying capacity is zero and organizational population are extinct. We simulate the evolvement tendency of environmental carrying capacity and organizational population density, the trajectory of organizational population density when environmental carrying capacity parameters are maintained and the change trend of carrying capacity when organizational population density remains constant. The simulation results verify the natural evolution of organizational population. Organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity have interactive effects to organizational population extinction. Environmental carrying capacity and organizational population density have upper limits. After reaching the limits, organizational population will deteriorate gradually, until it is downsized to extinction. When environmental carrying capacity shrinks, organizational population density will decline after four years. The study shows that:(1) In the initial stage of organizational population evolution, the increasing speed of population density is slower than that of environmental carrying capacity. The founder of the enterprise needs to mobilize various resources and establish the legitimacy of the organization and its products. A series of preparatory work takes time. As a result, when the environmental carrying capacity increases, the population density requires some preparation time to develop.(2) Population density has a lagged effect on the change of environmental carrying capacity. It was not until four years that the population density shows a downward trend when the environmental carrying capacity decrease. When the environmental carrying capacity equals to zero, population density needs three years to become zero. Organizational founders will constantly revise and adjust their expectations based on current available resources. When environmental carrying capacity decreases, entrepreneurs do not realize the changes in operation environment and market, they still eager to enter into the organizational population. New organizations are being established and existing organization struggle to stay in the organizational population, so the population density keep rising or remain stable. But the resources that the environment may supply are limited, as the development of population density, individual organization gets fewer resources in the increasingly competitive population. Inferior organizations are constantly being eliminated, and therefore the death rate of the organization rises up. Meanwhile, entrepreneurs that try to enter the population observe the phenomenon of population evolution and then give up joining the organizational population, the birth rate of the organization declines. It takes up four years for organizations to form expectations and make reactions after the environmental carrying capacity drops and available resources reduce.(3)The moderate decline of environmental carrying capacity may improve the resource utilization efficiency of organizational population, and favorable for the survival of organizational population. Resources that organizations may obtain will descend when environmental carrying capacity decrease, but will urge the population to utilize resources more efficient and effective. On the contrary, excessive resources will weaken the importance of efficiency and adds to the disadvantage of organizational population. However, the rapid shrinkage of resources will place organizational population at serious risk of extinction. We should grasp the scale of resource control and make decisions according to the environmental carrying capacity and available resources.

Key words: organizational population density, environmental carrying capacity, population extinction, simulation, organizational ecology