科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 127-136.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国经济增长与三个产业能源消耗的结构调整

邵庆龙   

  1. 四川大学经济学院
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-04 修回日期:2016-03-17 出版日期:2017-01-20 发布日期:2017-01-20
  • 通讯作者: 邵庆龙
  • 基金资助:

    国家社科基金项目“低碳经济背景下我国能效标识制度的发展和优化”（编号：13BJY066, 2013.07.01-2016.12.31）。

Economic Growth and Industrial Energy Consumption in China

Shao Qinglong   

  1. School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, Sichuan, China
  • Received:2014-12-04 Revised:2016-03-17 Online:2017-01-20 Published:2017-01-20

摘要： 基于VEC模型，通过单位根检验、协整检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析，利用中国1985-2011年三个产业能源利用与经济增长相关数据，对经济增长和三个产业能源利用的长期均衡及动态关系进行了实证分析。结果发现经济增长是推动能源消费的主要动因；第一、二产业能耗应该继续适度的增长；第三产业能耗对经济增长具有长期协整作用，是未来中国经济增长的主要推动力。此外，本文还从能源投入结构、三个产业能源投入情况以及应对反弹效应的负面影响等方面提出了建议。

关键词: 经济增长, 能源利用, VEC模型, 产业结构, 反弹效应

Abstract: Based on VEC model, the long-term dynamic relationship between Chinese economic growth and energy use was examined by using unit root test, co-integration analysis, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, with data on GDP and industrial energy consumption in China from 1985 to 2011. Results found that economic output is the major driver of energy consumption, energy inputs of primary and secondary industries should keep increasing at a proper ratio, and energy consumption in tertiary industry would be the main driver for China`s economic growth in the future through its long-term co-integration relationship with economic output. Build on these conclusions, several suggestions were proposed on energy input structure, energy consumptions of three industries, and negative effects of the rebound effect.

Key words: economic growth, energy use, VEC model, industrial structure, rebound effect