官员任期、政策偏好与城市创新

邓洁 潘爽 叶德珠

科研管理 ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1) : 114-124.

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科研管理 ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1) : 114-124.
论文

官员任期、政策偏好与城市创新

  • 邓洁1,潘爽2,叶德珠3,4
作者信息 +

Officials′ tenure, policy preferences and urban innovation

  • Deng Jie1, Pan Shuang2, Ye Dezhu3,4
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

   晋升锦标赛下,官员在有限任期内存在晋升预期差异,由此导致的短视行为的变化可能对创新产出造成影响。本文利用2004-2016年285个城市的面板数据对官员任期与城市创新进行检验实证结果发现:相对于市长,市委书记任期对城市创新的影响更大,呈现出显著的倒U型关系,该结论经过稳健性检验和内生性检验后依然成立。进一步分析发现市委书记的更替显著抑制了城市创新水平的提升。机制分析发现,市委书记的任期通过影响环境治理、增长目标制定以及土地财政三条路径对城市创新水平产生影响。异质性分析发现在市场化条件较好,东部以及城市规模较大的地区市委书记任期对创新的U型特征仍然显著。本研究丰富了晋升锦标赛理论的经验证据,有助于理解行政体制对高质量转型发展的影响。

Abstract

   Based on the background of the promotion tournament, there exist the differences between officials′ promotion expectations during their limited tenure. Those differences may cause the officials′ myopic behavior and thereby affect innovation outputs. However, limited existing literatures have studied institutional motivation of urban innovation from an officials′ promotion perspective. Also, they have not clarified clearly the specific influence mechanism of political institutions, including officials′ tenure on urban innovation. 

      Therefore, according to existing studies, for the sample period of 2004-2016, we utilize the panel data of 285 cities to examine how officials′ tenure affects urban innovation through economic growth targets, and further propose two new mechanism paths from the perspectives of land finance and environmental governance. The conclusions drawn by using the method of multivariate statistical regression analysis show that: (1) The municipal party secretaries′ tenures have a greater impact on urban innovation, relative to that of mayors, showing a significant inverted U-shaped relationship; (2) The municipal party secretaries′ turnovers significantly inhibit urban innovation; (3) The mechanism analysis indicates that the municipal party secretaries′ tenures affect urban innovation through three channels, including setting economic growth target, land finance and environmental governance. For example, with a higher economic growth target, the officials are more likely to adopt short-sighted expansion strategy to stimulate the economy, and then restrain urban innovation; (4) Heterogeneity test results show that the U-shaped characteristics of the municipal party secretaries′ tenures on urban innovation are still significant in regions with higher marketisation, in the eastern China or in the larger cities. 

     This study contributes to several strands as follows: (1) Our conclusions can enrich the empirical evidence for the theory of promotion incentives. The majority of existing literatures have focused on the influence of promotion tournament on economic growth, but rare literatures have discussed the influence of official tenure on innovation output. (2) We clarify clearly the mechanism influence of official tenure on urban innovation, and empirically examine the dynamic impacts of official tenure on urban innovation by three channels such as economic growth goals, land finance and environmental governance policies. (3) This paper helps better understand the impacts of administrative system on the high-quality transformation development. Early literatures have mainly focused on the influence of economic factors on urban innovation at the city level, but few literatures have studied the influence of political system, especially local officials on urban innovation at the medium level. Therefore, this study is a significant added to the literatures.

     This paper suggests that the government should reasonably arrange officials′ tenure, which not only ensures the stability and continuity of economic policies, but also avoids the collusion between officials and enterprises. The government should establish evaluation indicator system for official promotion to guide local governments setting moderate economic growth targets. Local governments should properly handle the relationship between ecological environment and economic development. Local governments should adopt diversified policies to promote urban innovation and economic development. Finally, the government should take measures according to local conditions, and combine better the "efficient market" and the "effective government" when promoting the reform of fiscal decentralization system.

关键词

官员任期 / 城市创新 / 晋升锦标赛 / 高质量发展

Key words

officials′ tenure / urban innovation / promotion tournament / high-quality development

引用本文

导出引用
邓洁 潘爽 叶德珠. 官员任期、政策偏好与城市创新[J]. 科研管理. 2023, 44(1): 114-124
Deng Jie, Pan Shuang, Ye Dezhu. Officials′ tenure, policy preferences and urban innovation[J]. Science Research Management. 2023, 44(1): 114-124

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基金

国家社会科学基金重点项目:“金融与实体经济的结构匹配及其经济增长效应研究”(19AJY026,2019.06—2022.06)。

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