目前国内外已有的创新指数主要是基于创新能力与创新绩效测度的,而且全部是年度数据,存在如下缺点:动态性和时效性不足,指标宽泛,指标间的时序性缺乏,而且无预警功能,不能及时反映区域的科技创新活动景气状态,对科技创新政策的引导作用不强。本文从测度科技创新景气状态的视角出发,基于熊彼特的创新周期理论,研究了区域科技创新景气指数构建的理论基础,探讨了基于合成指数构建科技创新景气指数的方法,并构建了一套基于季度数据测度的深圳南山区科技创新景气指数。研究表明基于季度数据合成的科技创新景气指数可以及时、动态地反映区域科技创新的景气状况,预测科技创新的发展趋势,这对区域科技创新政策的制定、反馈、科技资源的配置有很大的指导意义。
Abstract
The present innovation index at home and abroad is mainly based on the ability and performance of innovation, and they are all annual data. These indexes lack dynamics and timeliness, broad indicators, time sequence, and warning function, and fail to reflect the status of regional technological innovation activities, and the technological innovation policy guidance is weak. This paper concentrates on technological innovation and innovation cycle theory, studies the theoretical foundation of regional technological innovation climate index, discusses the method of constructing regional technological innovation index based on composite index, and builds up a set of technological innovation climate index based on the quarterly data of NanshanDistrict of Shenzhen. The results have shown that technological innovation climate index based on composite method can reflect technological innovation status timely and dynamically, forecasting technological innovation trends, which has great significance on formulation and feedback of regional technological innovation policy and configuration technology resources.
关键词
科技创新 /
景气指数 /
模型
Key words
technological innovation /
climate index /
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基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号:71273025;起止时间:2013-2016);国家软科学研究计划项目(重大)(项目编号:2010GXS1K015;起止时间:2011-2012)。
