创新投入的延迟效应与创新风险成因分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本研究基于创新投入延迟性视角,运用计量经济学和系统动力学方法定量测度创新投入的延迟时间和延迟效应,揭示创新投入的沉没成本,量化创新风险。研究发现:(1)从延迟时间来看,企业资金的延迟时间最短,创新投入应以企业为主体。(2)从延迟效应来看,创新投入各阶段由于延迟时间不同所导致的沉没成本也有所差异,沉没成本反映和量化了创新过程中的风险。(3)科技活动人员投入延迟时间短,沉没成本低,是提高创新投入产出效率的重要手段。

关键词: 创新投入, 延迟效应, 创新风险, 沉没成本

Abstract: The research is based on a delay perspective of innovation input. This research uses the method of Econometrics and System Dynamics to measure the delayed time of innovation input and analyzes the delayed effect, aiming to uncover the sunk cost of innovation input and quantify the innovations risks. The results have shown that: (1) from the perspective of the delayed time, the delayed time of corporate funds is the shortest. Therefore, innovation input should put the enterprises in a dominant position; (2) from the perspective of the delayed effect, the sunk cost resulted from the different delayed time varied in each stage of innovation input. Sunk costs reflect and quantify the risks in the process of innovation; (3) To shorten the delayed time of talent input and to lower the sunk cost are important measures to improve the input-output efficiency of innovation.

Key words: innovation input, delayed effect, innovation risk, sunk cost

中图分类号:

F223

张治河, 许珂, 李鹏. 创新投入的延迟效应与创新风险成因分析[J]. 科研管理, 2015, 36(5): 10-20.

Zhang Zhihe, Xu Ke, Li Peng. An analysis on the delayed effect of innovation input and the cause of innovative risks[J]. Science Research Management, 2015, 36(5): 10-20.

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