本文首先采用TOPSIS对科技产出进行评价,得到唯一的产出变量,然后采用面板数据、面板向量自回归模型分析科技投入与产出的互动关系。结果表明,中国高校人文社科研究投入产出的互动关系效应比较明显,形成良性正反馈效应。科研经费、研发人员全时当量与与科研产出之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系。科研人员数是科研产出的格兰杰原因,而科研产出只在滞后1期的情况下,才是科研人员数的格兰杰原因。无论是脉冲响应函数,还是方差分解,各变量除自身外,都是科研产出的影响最大,说明了科研产出对科技投入存在较大的互动作用。对科技产出贡献最大的是科技人员数量,其次是研发人员全时当量,最后是科研经费,最后对原因进行了分析。

After evaluating the S&T output based on the TOPSIS, this paper obtains the only output variable and analyzes the interaction between the S&T input and output based on the panel data and the panel vector auto-regression model. The results show the obvious interaction between the input and output in Chinese universities, which forms a benign positive feedback effect. There exist bidirectional granger causalities among the scientific research funds, the research and development staff full-time equivalent and the scientific research output. The scientific research personnel number is the granger cause of scientific research output, and the research output is the granger cause of the scientific research personnel number only in the next lag stage. Whether the impulse response function or the variance decomposition, each variable except for itself is the biggest influence to the scientific research output, indicating that there is a great interaction between the scientific research output and the input. The scientific and technical personnel number makes the largest contribution to the scientific and technical output, the research and development personnel full-time equivalent is the second contribution and the scientific research funds is the third. Finally, this paper analyzes the reason for such contributions.