WTO前后国际贸易对中国CO2排放影响的对比分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了对入世前后国际贸易对碳排放影响的差异进行测算以及对要素禀赋假说和污染天堂假说进行检验,本文通过建立联立方程模型和引入虚拟变量,运用1995-2010年29个省的面板数据进行了3SLS估计。实证结果表明:(1)入世前后国际贸易对CO₂排放的规模、结构和技术效应均存在显著差异;(2)入世后国际贸易使CO₂排放的总效应弹性系数增加,从而导致环境进一步恶化;(3)两个假说均成立,但由于环境规制起主导作用,以致结构效应对环境不利。

关键词: 国际贸易, 规模效应, 结构效应, 技术效应, CO₂排放

Abstract: In order to calculate the differences of international trade's impact on CO₂ emission before and after joining WTO and test the Factor Endowment Hypothesis and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, this paper uses 29 provinces' panel data from 1995 to 2010 to do the 3SLS estimation by establishing the simultaneous equation model and introducing the dummy variables. The test results indicate that: (1) before and after joining WTO, the scale, structure and technical effects of international trade on CO₂ emission have significant differences; (2) the total effect elastic coefficient of international trade on CO₂ emission has increased after joining WTO, which has led to further deterioration of the environment; and (3) the two hypotheses have both passed the tests, but as the environmental regulation plays a leading role, the structure effect has a negative impact on the environment.

Key words: international trade, scale effect, structure effect, technical effect, CO₂ emission

中图分类号:

F752.8

邹庆, 陈迅, 吕俊娜. WTO前后国际贸易对中国CO₂排放影响的对比分析[J]. 科研管理, 2013, 34(11): 137-146.

Zou Qing, Chen Xun, Lv Junna. Comparative analysis of the effect of international trade on China’s CO₂ emission before and after joining WTO[J]. Science Research Management, 2013, 34(11): 137-146.

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WTO前后国际贸易对中国CO₂排放影响的对比分析

Comparative analysis of the effect of international trade on China’s CO₂ emission before and after joining WTO

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