不确定性和复杂性的存在为创新项目的管理设置了难题。本文提出了不确定性的四种类型:偏差、可预见的不确定性、不可预见的不确定性和混乱;探讨了在各种不确定性条件下创新项目在管理方式上的差异。然后结合创新项目的复杂性,提出了修正法和选择法两种管理模式,并基于成本和价值分析了两种管理模式的适用性。最后,以案例分析法探讨了不同管理模式在创新项目中的实际应用。

The existence of uncertainty and complexity makes the management of innovation projects a tough work. This article analyzes four types of uncertainty: deviation, foreseeable uncertainty, unforeseeable uncertainty, and chaos; discusses the management methods accordingly. Combined uncertainty with complexity, the innovation projects could be managed by two methods: learning and selectionism. Through cased study, we analyze how to use all these methods in different kinds of projects and in different stages of the projects.