城市气候政策不确定性对企业绿色创新的影响效应研究

杜扬; 钟美瑞; 徐骏

doi:10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.10.011

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科研管理 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (10) : 106-117. DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.10.011 CSTR: 32148.14.kygl.2026.10.011

城市气候政策不确定性对企业绿色创新的影响效应研究

杜扬 ¹ ,
钟美瑞 ¹^,² ,
徐骏 ³

作者信息 +

Research on the impact mechanism of urban climate policy uncertainty on enterprise green innovation

Du Yang ¹ ,
Zhong Meirui ¹^,² ,
Xu Jun ³

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

中国气候政策独特的不确定性表现,引导着企业绿色创新的深度转变。以实物期权理论为主导,结合时间异质视角与组织行为分析,本文系统构建了城市气候政策不确定性(CCPU)影响绿色管理创新(GMI)和绿色技术创新持续性(GTIS)的分析框架。基于2010—2023年中国上市企业数据,运用随机森林回归器和固定效应模型联合检验了CCPU对GMI与GTIS的非线性影响效应。主要结论包括:(1)特征重要性分析与Boruta算法表明,CCPU是影响企业GMI和GTIS的重要因素;(2)部分依赖图结果显示,CCPU对二者的影响曲线分别呈现为“倒U形”与“正U形”;(3)进一步分析发现,企业战略激进度升高将强化CCPU对GMI和GTIS的影响,企业内部薪酬差距扩大则会削弱这一影响,企业拥有专精特新身份后,CCPU对其GMI和GTIS的影响更加显著。研究从行为视角搭建了绿色创新和决策理论的对话桥梁,拓展了绿色创新外部驱动的因素分析,为国家气候政策制定和企业绿色创新贡献了重要认识。

Abstract

The unique uncertainties embodied in China's climate policies are guiding a profound transformation in firms' green innovation. Drawing on real options theory and incorporating a temporal heterogeneity perspective together with organizational behavior analysis, this study systematically constructs an analytical framework for how city-level climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) influences green managerial innovation (GMI) and the persistence of green technological innovation (GTIS). Using data from Chinese listed firms from 2010 to 2023, we employ a random forest regressor and a fixed-effects model to jointly test the nonlinear impact of CCPU on GMI and GTIS. The main findings are as follows:(1) Feature importance analysis and the Boruta algorithm indicate that CCPU is a key factor affecting firms' GMI and GTIS. (2) Partial dependence plots reveal that the effect of CCPU on GMI follows an inverted U-shape, whereas its effect on GTIS exhibits a U-shaped pattern. (3) Further analysis shows that greater strategic aggressiveness amplifies the impact of CCPU on both GMI and GTIS; a larger pay gap within the firm weakens this impact; and for firms designated as "specialized, refined, distinctive and innovative" (SRDI), the marginal effect of CCPU on GMI and GTIS becomes more pronounced. This study builds a dialogue bridge between green innovation and decision-making theories from a behavioral perspective, extends the analysis of external drivers of green innovation, and will provide important insights for national climate policymaking and corporate green innovation.

导出引用

杜扬, 钟美瑞, 徐骏. 城市气候政策不确定性对企业绿色创新的影响效应研究[J]. 科研管理. 2026, 47(10): 106-117 https://doi.org/10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.10.011

Du Yang, Zhong Meirui, Xu Jun. Research on the impact mechanism of urban climate policy uncertainty on enterprise green innovation[J]. Science Research Management. 2026, 47(10): 106-117 https://doi.org/10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.10.011

中图分类号： F273.1;F49

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