供应链数字化对企业商业信用风险的影响研究——基于供应链敏捷性视角

韩民春, 饶玉蕾

科研管理 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (7) : 161-169.

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PDF(1135 KB)
科研管理 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (7) : 161-169. DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.07.016  CSTR: 32148.14.kygl.2026.07.016

供应链数字化对企业商业信用风险的影响研究——基于供应链敏捷性视角

作者信息 +

The impact of supply chain digitalization on corporate credit risk: A perspective on supply chain agility

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摘要

商业信用风险的不确定性是制约供应链金融规范发展的关键因素,供应链数字化能否有效解决这一问题值得深入研究。本文基于供应链敏捷性视角,将2018年供应链创新与应用试点作为供应链数字化的准自然实验,基于上市公司2014—2022年数据研究了供应链数字化对企业商业信用风险的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:供应链数字化显著抑制了企业商业信用风险,表现为在商业信贷中降低使用应收账款和应付账款等高风险的商业信用模式。机制检验表明,供应链数字化通过提高客户敏捷性、运营敏捷性和合作敏捷性,影响供需匹配、运营效率和信任网络,最终作用于商业信用风险。此外,供应链数字化对非国有企业、低行业集中度企业和低信任水平地区企业商业信用风险的缓解作用更显著。本文为供应链数字化发展及其对供应链金融产生的经济影响提供了经验证据,对促进产业—科技—金融循环发展、实现产业链供应链安全稳定、防范和化解重大金融风险具有重要的现实意义。

Abstract

The uncertainty of commercial credit risk is a key factor restricting the development of supply chain finance regulation. Based on the perspective of supply chain agility, this paper took the 2018 Supply Chain Innovation and Application Pilot as a quasi-natural experiment of supply chain digitization, and studied the impact of supply chain digitization on commercial credit risk and its functioning mechanism based on the data of listed companies in the period from 2014 to 2022. It is found that supply chain digitization significantly suppresses supply chain commercial credit risk, which is manifested in the reduction of the use of high-risk commercial credit modes such as accounts receivable and accounts payable in commercial credit. The mechanism test showed that supply chain digitization affects supply-demand matching, operational efficiency, and trust network by improving customer agility, operational agility, and cooperation agility, and ultimately acts on commercial credit risk. In addition, supply chain digitalization has a more significant mitigating effect on commercial credit risk of non-state-owned enterprises, enterprises with low industry concentration and enterprises in low trust regions. The findings of this paper will provide empirical evidence for supply chain digitization to achieve safe development and its economic impact on supply chain finance, which is of great practical significance for promoting the integration of industry-technology-finance and preventing and mitigating major financial risks under the new development pattern.

关键词

供应链数字化 / 商业信用风险 / 供应链敏捷性

Key words

supply chain digitization / commercial credit risk / supply chain agility

引用本文

导出引用
韩民春, 饶玉蕾. 供应链数字化对企业商业信用风险的影响研究——基于供应链敏捷性视角[J]. 科研管理. 2026, 47(7): 161-169 https://doi.org/10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.07.016
Han Minchun, Rao Yulei. The impact of supply chain digitalization on corporate credit risk: A perspective on supply chain agility[J]. Science Research Management. 2026, 47(7): 161-169 https://doi.org/10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.07.016
中图分类号: F272.3   

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The financial distress of small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)will bring a series of negative effects to themselves, from its startup to its decline. Multiple theories and much empirical evidence have been proposed to interpret this phenomenon. At the same time, the distress events can lead to negative wealth and profitability outcomes for supply chain members in the short time and long time. In fact, the financial distress of SMEs has become a major concern in disruptions to normal activities, but only a few contributions in the literature have focused on the transmission effect of SMEs’ financial distress on the credit risk of suppliers. Credit risk refers to the risk caused by the borrower's possible default and failure to repay the loan and interest. The credit risk may propagate further, sometimes even with amplifications, leading to a negative performance outcomes for the members, reducing the overall operational efficiency and competitiveness of the supply chain. To this end, a transmission model is constructed to analyze the impact of SMEs’ financial distress on the credit risk of suppliers. During modeling, classical Jarrow–Turnbull model is used as reference to denote the intensity of default risk αand the probability of default risk F ( t ). Furthermore, the above mechanism is tested by the sample of Small and Medium-sized Board from 2010 to 2018. The results are as follows based on the theoretical model and empirical research: Firstly, there is a positive relationship between the financial distress of SMEs and the credit risk of suppliers. Secondly, the suppliers’ own factors have a greater impact on their credit risk than that of SMEs’ financial distress. Additionally, this process has a time effect of two years, and suppliers of high scale, high-customer-concentration and state-owned nature are more resistant to credit risk. On the contrast, manufacturing, primary and secondary industry suppliers have weaker risk resilience. The findings of this paper, on the one hand, provide reference for the credit risk prevention and management of SMEs and the supply chain system. On the other hand, promoting the stability and competitiveness of supply chain node-enterprises.

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基金

国家社会科学基金重大项目:“经济高质量发展的指标体系构建与测度研究”(24&ZD062,2024.12—2028.12)

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