开源许可规制、技术复杂度与开源项目可持续发展：基于GitHub大样本实证研究

李兰花; 陈真真; 黄灿; 王黎萤; 谢雯欣

doi:10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.03.019

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科研管理 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 189-198. DOI: 10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.03.019 CSTR: 32148.14.kygl.2026.03.019

开源许可规制、技术复杂度与开源项目可持续发展：基于GitHub大样本实证研究

李兰花 ¹ ,
陈真真 ² ,
黄灿 ² ,
王黎萤 ¹ ,
谢雯欣 ³

作者信息 +

Open-source license regulation，technological complexity，and sustainable development of open-source projects： An empirical study based on a large sample from GitHub

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

以人工智能为代表的开源项目已成为企业实现数字技术突破的重要载体。然而，如何选择适当的许可证以保障开源项目可持续发展是企业亟待解决的难题。本文构建不同技术复杂度情境下许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的异质性影响模型，选取GitHub平台2009—2023年发布的2，536，526项开源项目作为样本，采用负二项模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明：（1）开源许可证的采纳显著促进开源项目的可持续发展，具体表现为用户关注度和开发活跃度的提升；（2）相对于限制型许可证，宽松型许可证的促进作用更强；（3）相对于缺少专利许可条款的许可证，包含该条款的许可证对项目可持续发展的积极影响更显著；（4）技术复杂度正向调节上述许可证规制对开源项目可持续发展的影响。研究揭示了开源许可证规制影响开源项目可持续发展的边界条件，有助于企业优化面向复杂数字技术的开源许可证治理机制，为构建健康繁荣的开源生态提供启示。

Abstract

Open-source projects，particularly those in the domain of artificial intelligence，have become vital carriers for firms to achieve digital technological breakthroughs. Yet，how to choose an appropriate license that can ensure the sustainable development of open-source projects remains an unsettled question. Based on a sample of 2，536，526 open-source projects from GitHub，this study constructed a theoretical model of the differential impacts of open-source license on the sustainability of open-source projects in the context of technological complexity and empirically tested it by using the negative binomial regression method. The results showed that：（1） the adoption of open-source license has a significant positive effect on the sustainable development of open-source projects，manifested as increases in user interest and development activeness；（2） compared to restrictive license，permissive license can promote the sustainable development of open-source projects to a larger extent；（3） the license with patent grant clause has a stronger promoting effect on the sustainable development of projects than that without such a clause；and （4） technological complexity positively moderates the relationship between open-source license and the sustainability of open-source projects. This study has revealed the boundary conditions under which open-source license affects the sustainable development of open-source projects，thus helping firms improve governance mechanisms of open-source projects oriented towards complex digital technologies and offering insights for building a sustainable and prosperous open-source ecosystem.

导出引用

李兰花, 陈真真, 黄灿, 等. 开源许可规制、技术复杂度与开源项目可持续发展：基于GitHub大样本实证研究[J]. 科研管理. 2026, 47(3): 189-198 https://doi.org/10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.03.019

Li Lanhua, Chen Zhenzhen, Huang Can, et al. Open-source license regulation，technological complexity，and sustainable development of open-source projects： An empirical study based on a large sample from GitHub[J]. Science Research Management. 2026, 47(3): 189-198 https://doi.org/10.19571/j.cnki.1000-2995.2026.03.019

中图分类号： F270.7

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