关键词: 科技评价政策, 文本量化, 政策效力, 科技创新能力

Abstract:    As innovation′s capability has improved remarkably, the development of innovation′s capability and the implementation of innovation-driven strategy become the key themes. To build up China′s strategic capacity in S&T, the research on the effectiveness of S&T policies has received extensive attention and has become an important topic. However, the role of China′s S&T innovation system in promoting innovation capability is still questioned by foreign scholars, who believe that the conflict between policy objectives and policy implementation is influencing policy effectiveness. As a basis for the adjustment and optimization of innovation performance, it is of great theoretical significance to make an intensive study of S&T evaluation policies. From the perspective of policy text quantification, this paper uses content analysis and OLS models to test the relationship between S&T evaluation policies and regional innovation capability. Furthermore, this paper examines the mechanism of policy objectives from the stages of innovation output and achievement transformation respectively.
    Focusing on the guidance of S&T evaluation policies, we take the quantification and measurement as the breakthrough points and designs a research framework from institutional strategy theory. On the one hand, this paper collects 563 S&T evaluation policies of 2006-2018 from the policy database of various provinces, using terms such as "S&T", "innovation", and "evaluation", with the method of skimming and intensive reading. This paper then constructs a three-dimension quantitative evaluation framework to calculate the score of S&T evaluation policies. On the other hand, we conduct an indicator system of regional scientific and technological innovation capability from three aspects, including innovation inputs, innovation performance, and innovation environment. Combined with the quantitative results and OLS models, this paper studies the impact of S&T evaluation policies on regional innovation capability and analyzes its mechanism.
    According to the quantitative analysis results, the regional scientific and technology innovation capabilities of all provinces tend to be in a "pyramid" distribution pattern. There is still a significant "disconnection" between innovation output and achievement transformation, manifested as a more substantial lag in the capacity of research output. The development trajectory of S&T evaluation policy shows a trend of "late start and rapid development", and the focus of its policy objectives has changed from the traditional goal of "evaluation funding". To some extent, S&T evaluation policies can promote scientific technology innovation capability, but its positive effect is weak. Furthermore, innovation subjects and innovative talents are the core driving forces and exert main effects. From the perspectives of scientific research output and achievement transformation, the effectiveness of various policy objectives is practical and shows a more substantial role in promoting achievement transformation. However, the direction of policy objectives has been alienated, indicating that the reality of scientific research problems and barriers still exist.
     After the robustness test, this paper made a further discussion about policy effectiveness and policy objectives. It is believed that the weak effect of S&T evaluation policies can be attributed to three levels: "implementation deviation", "departmental game" and "policy barrier". Meanwhile, there is a gap between policy objectives and policy implement, resulting in insufficient effectiveness.
   The study found that: (1) The distribution of regional scientific and technology innovation capability is manifested in regional diversity. The policy objective of the S&T evaluation policy is shifting from investment-driven to innovation-driven. (2)  Although the current "baton" role of S&T evaluation policy is limited, its mechanism has changed from "winning by quantity" to "winning by quality". (3) There are weak points among S&T evaluation policy system and a deviation between policy objectives and policy implementation.
    In combination with the research conclusions, we put forward the following policy recommendations. (1) The government needs to emphasize the strength of policy and reduce the gap between the evaluation department′s responsibility and power. (2) It has to strengthen the dominant position of problem-oriented policy objectives and clear the research target of S&T innovation activities. (3) It is necessary to deepen the coordination of policy implementation departments and avoid the inaction of executive departments.

Key words: S&T evaluation policy, policy quantitative, policy effectiveness, S&T innovation capability