科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 113-123.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

港口供需匹配非均衡评价模型及实证

匡海波1,余方平1,谭志加1,2,孟强1,3,赵广田4   

  1. 1大连海事大学综合交通运输协同创新中心，辽宁 大连116026；
    2大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院，辽宁 大连116026；
    3新加坡国立大学土木与环境工程系，新加坡117576；
    4大连理工大学管理与经济学部，辽宁 大连116024
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-03 修回日期:2018-01-10 出版日期:2018-04-20 发布日期:2018-04-13
  • 通讯作者: 赵广田
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金：自贸区港口生态圈演化、平衡及评价机制研究(71672016)；长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助：港口协同发展与绿色增长（IRT_17R13）。

The non-equilibrium evaluation model and empirical research of port supply-demand matching

Kuang Haibo1, Yu Fangping1, Tan Zhijia1,2, Meng Qiang1,3, Zhao Guangtian4   

  1. 1. Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies，Dalian Maritime University，Dalian 116026，Liaoning，China; 
    2. School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China; 
    3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore City 117576, Singapore; 
    4. Faculty of Management and Economics，Dalian University of Technology，Dalian 116024，Liaoning, China
  • Received:2015-07-03 Revised:2018-01-10 Online:2018-04-20 Published:2018-04-13

摘要： 港口供需匹配是港口科学发展最为关键问题。本研究在借鉴文献[12]的基础上，进一步改进和优化港口供需匹配模型。本研究首先构建了较为合理的港口供需匹配评价指标体系，其次，借助非均衡分析理论框架，建立了港口供需匹配非均衡评价模型，最后，采集上海港2006－2013年数据进行分析，结果表明：上海港2006－2013年期间潜在供给小于潜在需求、处于严重或轻度供给不足状态，不过供给需求缺口逐年收窄。

关键词: 港口；供需匹配；非均衡框架；评价指标体系, 缺口

Abstract: Port matching supply and demand is the port key problem. This study further improved the literature [12] the port matching supply and demand model. Firstly, a scientific port matching supply and demand evaluation index system was constructed. Secondly, a improved port supply matching evaluation model was established with the help of the non－equilibrium theory of frame analysis. Finally, we did an empirical research on Shanghai port 2006-2013 years data. The results show that: the port of Shanghai 20062013 years of potential supply is less than the potential demand, in the a serious shortage of supply or mild condition, but the supply and demand gap has been gradually narrowing.

Key words: port, supply-demand matching, non-equilibrium framework, evaluation index system, gap