本文利用1985-2009年的时间序列数据,运用ARDL模型与边界检验方法,就结构性因素及专利对中国碳排放强度变动的动态效应进行计量检验。研究发现,碳排放强度与人均收入显著负相关,与煤炭消费比重显著正相关,人均收入增长有利于促进碳排放强度下降,但人均收入对碳排放强度的边际影响低于煤炭比重的边际影响,煤炭比重对碳排放强度的短期影响明显弱于长期影响。在不同模型中,第三产业比重对碳排放强度的影响结果不一致,表明第三产业内部发展不均衡,因此,产业结构调整的目标不仅仅在于提高第三产业的比重,更需要加快其向资源节约与环境友好型发展方式转变。专利对碳排放强度的短期影响不显著,其对碳排放强度的影响具有时间滞后性,从长期来看,碳排放强度与专利总量、实用新型专利和外观设计专利显著负相关,与发明专利显著正相关,发明专利对碳排放强度下降尚未起到显著促进作用。
Abstract
The dynamic effect of structural factors and patents on carbon emission intensity in China from the year of 1985 to 2009 is analyzed by employing ARDL model and bound testing approach. The empirical results show that per-capita income has a significant negative impact on carbon emission intensity and the coal share in total energy consumption has a significant positive impact on it. The increasing per-capita income might help improving the decline of carbon emission intensity; however the marginal impact of per-capita income on carbon emission intensity is lower than that of the coal share on the intensity. The short term impact of the coal share on carbon emission intensity is significantly lower than its long term effect. The share of tertiary industry in GDP shows a significant impact on carbon emission intensity; however its impact on the carbon emission intensity is not identical with the different models, indicating an unbalanced development trend within tertiary industry. Therefore, the target of industrial structure adjustment is not only to increase the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, but also to speed up its transition to resource-saving and environment-friendly economic development. The short-term impact of patent output on carbon emission intensity is basically insignificant, showing a lag influence of patent output on carbon emission intensity. In the long run, a significantly negative correlation is found between carbon emission intensity and total amount of patent, practical new-typed patent and appearance design patent while there is a significantly positive relationship between carbon emission intensity and invention patents, showing that the invention patents have not played its promotive role in carbon intensity reduction yet.
关键词
碳排放强度 /
结构效应 /
专利效应 /
ARDL方法
Key words
carbon emissions intensity /
structural effect /
patent effect /
ARDL approach
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