本文运用面板计量分析方法,利用中国八大经济区域1986－2008年的相关数据考察了各区域能源消耗与经济增长之间的关系。实证研究结果表明:从长期来看,东北地区、北部沿海地区、南部沿海地区和黄河中游地区的能源消耗与经济增长存在双向因果关系,而长江中游地区、西北地区和西南地区仅存在单向因果关系;从短期来看,东北地区和西南地区的能源消耗与经济增长不存在因果关系,北部沿海地区、长江中游地区、西北地区、南部沿海地区和黄河中游地区仅存在单向因果关系。此外,东部沿海地区无法判断。最后,在实证结果基础上,本文提出了政策建议,这对各区域能源和产业政策的制定有借鉴意义。
Abstract
Based on the relevant data of the eight economic regions in China during the period of 1986-2008, the panel econometric analysis methods is used, to examine the relationship between Energy Consumption(EC) and economic growth(GDP).The results reveal that in the log term, there exists a bilateral Granger causality running both from GDP to EC and from EC to GDP in the northeast region, north-coastal region, south-coastal region, and middle Yellow River region, and a unilateral Granger causality from GDP to EC in the middle Yangtze River region and northwest region; and a unilateral Granger causality running from EC to GDP in the southwest region.The empirical findings also indicate that in the short run, a unilateral Granger causality exists from GDP to EC in north-coastal region, middle Yangtze River region, and northwest region, it exists from EC to GDP in the south-coastal region and middle Yellow River region, however, the Granger causality does not exist in northeast region and southwest region. Furthermore, the research suggests a hard-to-define relationship between EC and GDP from the pespectives of both the long-term and short-run in the east-coastal region. Finally,based on the empirical results, some related policy recommendations,which have the reference to the formulation of regional energy and industrial policy, are put forward.
关键词
八大经济区域 /
能源消耗 /
经济增长
Key words
eight economic regions /
EC /
economic growth
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基金
国家自然科学基金专项基金项目(70941029/G0301)阶段性成果;2011年笹川优秀青年教育基金奖学金资助。
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