科研管理

科研管理 ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (4): 73-79.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

重复购买Logit扩散模型应用分析

周英男, 罗小利, 张秀珍   

  1. 大连理工大学管理学院, 辽宁 大连市 116024
  • 收稿日期:2010-06-30 修回日期:2011-02-23 出版日期:2012-04-27 发布日期:2012-04-20

The applications and analysis of repeat purchase Logit diffusion model

Zhou Yingnan, Luo Xiaoli, Zhang Xiuzhen   

  1. School of Management, Dalian University of Science and Technology, Dalian 116024, China
  • Received:2010-06-30 Revised:2011-02-23 Online:2012-04-27 Published:2012-04-20

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摘要： 新产品上市后的销售规律研究对于企业非常重要,如今需要重复购买的非耐用品在市场中占有很大的份额,因此研究新产品重复购买扩散模型对于企业有着重要的现实意义。本文在分析现有重复购买产品技术扩散模型基础上,将Logit模型应用于础明公司产品实例上,给出详细的应用过程,用计量经济学研究方法分析解释所得结果,提出Logit模型的不足和需要改进之处,为公司运用模型进行销量预测提供参考。

关键词: 技术扩散, 重复购买, Logit模型, 计量经济学

Abstract: The sale rule for new products sales is very important for the enterprise; nowadays, the repeat purchase non-durable goods occupy a large share on the market, therefore the research on the diffusion model of new repeat purchase has the great plactical significance for the enterprises. Based on the analysis of existing technical diffusion model for the repeat purchase goods, the Logit model is applied to the products of Chuming corporation, and the application details are given, the results of the research are explained by using economeric method. The shortcomings of Logit model and the inadequate that needs to be improved are proposed. The results provide the reference for using the model to forecast the sales by enterprises.

Key words: technology diffusion, repeat purchase, Logit model, econometrics

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