关键词: 碳中和, 减排路径评估, TOPSIS, 耦合协调度, 障碍度

Abstract:     Compared with developed countries that have already reached their carbon emission peaks, China has a large total carbon emission volume but the timeline is short, while the task is heavy to achieve the carbon neutrality goal. Additionally, China is facing a severe energy security supply situation, and as a developing country, high-quality development remains a priority. Therefore, it is urgent to assess whether the carbon neutrality pathways align with China′s national conditions and development needs. In view of this, this paper proposed a quantitative evaluation method that considers China′s unique national conditions and integrates both feasibility and desirability dimensions. Based on China′s national conditions such as energy security, development requirements and carbon emissions, this paper constructed an index system to evaluate the compatibility of China′s carbon reduction pathways with its development needs, and employed the TOPSIS method with the integration of a temporal dimension, coupled with coupling coordination degree and obstacle factor models, to assess existing carbon reduction pathways. The study found that: (1) existing reduction pathways can balance china′s development needs to some extent, but there still exists the "security-environment-economy" trilemma; (2) to improve the compatibility of most pathways, the security of the pathways should be strengthened, especially food security, while also promoting non-fossil energy technologies vigorously and continuously advancing economic development after the peak is reached; and (3) the existing paths have problems such as insufficient indicator disclosure or the neglect of China′s specific policy requirements in their setup. This study not only provides a quantitative assessment framework for China′s emission reduction pathways but also offers a scientific basis for future modeling directions and strategy design regarding emission reduction in China.

Key words: carbon neutrality, emission reduction pathway assessment, TOPSIS, coupling coordination degree, obstacle degree