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经济政策不确定性对企业创新的影响研究——兼论数字化转型的调节效应
Research on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation: A concurrent discussion of the moderating effect of digital transformation
如何在复杂多变的环境下,推动数字经济与实体经济深度融合,提升企业技术创新能力,无疑是当下社会各界关注的焦点。基于A股上市公司数据,本文探讨了经济政策不确定性究竟怎样影响企业创新以及数字化在其中的作用。研究发现,经济政策不确定性与企业创新之间表现出显著的U型关系;经济政策不确定性的升高促进了企业策略性创新的上升,但导致企业实质性创新下降。将数字化纳入分析框架后发现,企业数字化转型加剧了经济政策不确定性对企业创新的负面冲击,二者的U型关系减弱且拐点发生右移,接近于L型。进一步分析发现,数字化转型的负面效果在高融资约束及低行业竞争程度的企业中更加明显。本研究为中国在错综复杂的大环境中,促进数字经济时代下的高质量发展,提供了重要的政策启示。
The current complex and ever-evolving landscape has brought to the imperative question of how to facilitate the profound fusion of the digital economy and the tangible business world while concurrently bolstering the innovative capabilities of enterprises. This paper explored the underlying mechanisms through which economic policy uncertainty affects firm innovation, as well as the pivotal role played by digital transformation. Using the data from China's A-share listed companies, this paper revealed a U-shaped relationship between economic policy uncertainty and firm innovation, the elevation of economic policy uncertainty fosters a surge in strategic innovation, while concurrently precipitating a decline in substantive innovation. After incorporating digitization into the analysis framework, it was found that enterprise digital transformation intensifies the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation. The U-shaped relationship weakens, and the inflection point shifts to the right, approaching an L-shape. Furthermore, the negative effects of digital transformation are more pronounced in companies with high financing constraints and low industry competition. This study will provide important policy implications for China to promote high-quality development in the ever-changing digital economy era.
经济政策不确定性 / 企业创新 / 数字化转型 / 非线性影响 / 创新质量
economic policy uncertainty / corporate innovation / digital transformation / nonlinear effect / innovation quality
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Our era is one of increasingly pervasive digital technologies, which penetrate deeply into the very core of the products, services, and operations of many organizations and radically change the nature of product and service innovations. The fundamental properties of digital technology are reprogrammability and data homogenization. Together, they provide an environment of open and flexible affordances that are used in creating innovations characterized by convergence and generativity. An analysis of convergence and generativity observed in innovations with pervasive digital technologies reveals three traits: (1) the importance of digital technology platforms, (2) the emergence of distributed innovations, and (3) the prevalence of combinatorial innovation. Each of the six articles in this special issue relates to one or more of these three traits. In this essay, we explore the organizational research implications of these three digital innovation traits and identify research opportunities for organization science scholars. Examples from the articles in this special issue on organizing for innovation in the digitized world are used to demonstrate the kind of organizational scholarship that can faithfully reflect and inform innovation in a world of pervasive digital technologies.
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We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence—including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles—indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our U.S. index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt ceiling dispute, and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, health care, finance, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel vector autoregressive setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our U.S. index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upward since the 1960s.
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芯片是数字经济时代产业发展的基石，相关技术创新关乎经济高质量发展和国家战略安全，然而关于政府如何引导区域芯片技术创新的研究却较为匮乏。基于注意力理论，以2013-2021年全国281个地级市为研究样本，实证检验政府注意力配置强度对区域芯片技术创新产出的影响。结果表明：政府注意力配置强度能够显著提高区域芯片技术创新水平；政府注意力配置强度对芯片创新的积极影响在市场化环境好的地区中得到进一步的加强；地方财政透明度正向调节了政府注意力配置强度对区域芯片创新产出的影响。通过替换因变量、PSM检验、两阶段最小二乘回归等稳健性检验，研究结论依然成立。研究结论为地方政府合理配置注意力资源，促进区域芯片创新高质量发展提供了政策启示。
The chip has emerged as a cornerstone of industrial development in the digital economy era, and its associated technological innovation is crucial for promoting high-quality economic growth and ensuring national strategic security. However, research on the role of government in guiding regional chip technology innovation remains scarce. Based on attention theory, this study empirically examines the impact of government attention allocation intensity on regional chip technology innovation output, using a sample of 281 prefecture-level cities across China from 2013-2021. The results indicate that government attention allocation intensity can significantly enhance regional chip technology innovation. The positive impact of government attention allocation intensity on chip innovation is further strengthened in regions with good market-oriented environments. Additionally, local fiscal transparency positively moderates the effect of government attention allocation intensity on regional chip innovation output. These findings are robust to various tests, including replacing the dependent variable, PSM test, and two-stage least squares regression. The study’s conclusions offer important policy implications for local governments seeking to allocate resources effectively and promote high-quality regional chip innovation in a context where attention is limited.
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