汇率变动、企业不同层级创新与全要素生产率

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用中国工业企业数据库、海关数据库和专利数据库匹配的49230家企业数据，本文研究了汇率变动对企业全要素生产率的影响。在此基础上，基于中介效应分析框架，考察了企业创新以及不同关键程度的创新在汇率变动对企业全要素生产率影响中的中介作用。结果发现：1. 汇率升值推升了企业全要素生产率，汇率升值1%则企业全要素生产率提高5.25%；2. 企业创新在汇率对企业全要素生产率影响中发挥中介作用，中介程度4.54%；3. 不同关键程度的企业创新所发挥的中介作用存在显著差异：非关键核心技术创新的中介作用最大，关键核心技术创新次之，关键核心发明技术创新的中介作用最小。本文在微观层面上证实了不同关键程度的企业创新在汇率变动对企业全要素生产率影响中的差异化作用，并为有效引导企业创新提供了政策依据。

关键词: 汇率变动, 关键核心技术, 全要素生产率, 有调节的中介效应

Abstract: Under the intensified trade friction between China and the US and the impact of the COVID-19, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has expand since 2015, so that enterprises will inevitably face obvious export pressure and operational difficulties. On the other hand, enterprise innovation, especially key-core technology innovation, is not only regarded as an important path to enhance its own competitiveness and improve Total Factor Productivity (TFP), but also rises to the height of national strategy, which is related to high-quality economic development and China′s process of modernization. Therefore, the innovation behavior of micro-enterprises, especially the innovation effectiveness of key core technologies, is an important breakthrough to transform the macroeconomic development model and achieve high-quality development. In the face of exchange rate fluctuations, can enterprises continue to maintain innovation motivation, enhance innovation vitality, achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies, and then improve their total factor productivity?Using the data from 49,230 enterprises and 310,000 sets of data matched by China′s industrial enterprise database, customs database and patent database, the paper studied the impact of exchange rate changes on the TFP of enterprises. Based on the analysis framework of the mediation effect, this paper investigated the mediating role of innovation and different critical degrees of innovation in the impact of exchange rate changes on the TFP of enterprises.Based on the above analysis, it was found that: (1) Exchange rate appreciation pushes up the TFP of enterprises, with a 1 standard deviation appreciation of the exchange rate increases the TFP of enterprises by 154%; (2) Enterprise innovation plays an mediating role in the impact of exchange rate on TFP of enterprises, with a mediation degree of 4.54%; (3) There are significant differences in the mediating role of enterprise innovation with different core degrees: the mediating role of non-core technology innovation is the largest, followed by key-core technology innovation, and the mediating role of key-core-invention technology is the least. The main reason for this relationship is that the more the R&D of key core technologies, the more funds, talents and time are invested, and in the face of external shocks, the higher the sunk cost or adjustment cost of terminating or restarting an innovation activity, so the more core technology R&D is, the less affected it is by exchange rate changes.The innovation points are as follows: (1) Key core technical indicators have been constructed. This paper used the text analysis method to build a key core technology thesaurus based on the national science and technology planning of China; (2) The real effective exchange rate of enterprises has been accurately described. This paper took the trade amount between enterprises and countries as the weight, and the bilateral exchange rate have been weighted to obtain the enterprise-level real effective exchange rate (REER), which is conducive to more detailed capture of the impact of exchange rate changes on enterprise innovation and productivity; (3) Large number of samples have been analyzed to ensure robustness of results. This paper used the matching data from China′s industrial enterprise database and customs database as samples, with a data volume of more than 300,000, covering all fields of industrial enterprises, to ensure the universality and reliability of the research conclusions. (4) A unified analytical framework for exchange rate, enterprise innovation and TFP has been constructed, and the meditating analysis method has been used to examine the mediation role of enterprise innovation and key core technology innovation, to better identify the impact and channel of exchange rate`s influence on productivity.This paper put forward the following policy implications: First, the more the key-core technology, the greater the promotion effect on the total factor productivity of enterprises. Therefore, differentiated fiscal subsidies and preferential tax policies should be given according to technological innovations of different core levels; Second, the R&D of key core technologies often has the characteristics of large capital demand and long R&D cycle, among which financing constraints. Therefore, government must further deepen the multi-level capital market construction, develop intellectual property financial tools, introduce "financial living water" as "precision irrigation" for enterprise R&D, realize the transformation from "intellectual property" to "asset" of enterprises, and strengthen its concentration and endurance of key core technological innovation. Third, we should continue to deepen the reform of the exchange rate system, reduce the barriers to foreign exchange transactions for micro entities, and make the exchange rate truly reflect market supply and demands.

Key words: exchange rate change, key core technology, total factor productivity, moderated mediation effect

陈奉先光云霞. 汇率变动、企业不同层级创新与全要素生产率[J]. 科研管理, 2023, 44(8): 57-68.

Chen Fengxian, Guang Yunxia. Exchange rate changes, corporate innovation and total factor productivity at different levels[J]. Science Research Management, 2023, 44(8): 57-68.

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