关键词: 创新驱动发展, 实体经济, 因果关系, 规划对策, 杭州

Abstract:     The real economy is fundamental to promote the development of social economy, and innovation activities are closely related to the development of the real economy. Exploring the relationship between innovation activities and the real economy is of great significance for realizing the transition from "Made in China" to "Created in China". Only by clarifying the causal logic between innovation activities and industrial development, summarizing its spatial development rules and trends, can we take further effective measures to promote the development of the real economy. Cities are the most basic and important units that can effectively implement policies and plans for creating development. However, the research on the relationship between innovation activities and the development of real economy at the city scale is still very scarce. This leads to the problem of "missing link" between "research and planning of urban innovation space development" and "research of urban industrial development". This has greatly affected the pertinence and effectiveness of urban factor resources planning and allocation. At the same time, different industries have their own characteristics of production activities, so innovation activities have different impacts on different industries. At present, there is still a lack of targeted research on specific industries.This paper selects Hangzhou as the object of empirical study. Information industry, health industry and high-end equipment manufacturing industry, which are driven by innovation, are chosen to carry out the empirical research. In terms of data selection, gross output value of main economic indicators of industrial is selected to represent industrial development, and patent data is selected to represent innovation activities. First of all, we establish VAR model to analyze the causal logic between industrial innovation activities and industrial development. Secondly, we use Kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation to judge the spatial distribution and trends of innovation activities, and further put forward planning countermeasures and suggestions.In the perspective of the interaction logic between innovation activities and industrial development, not all the key industrial developments in cities with the attribute of "innovation-driven development" directly benefit from urban innovation activities. Among them, the time sequence evolution process of innovation activities and industrial development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry is specifically manifested as "the increase of innovation activities is the cause, and the acceleration of industrial development is the result". That is to say, the innovation activities of high-end equipment manufacturing industry have a significant causal driving effect on its industrial development, and this driving effect has certain periodic characteristics.In the perspective of the distribution pattern, the development of innovation activities in high-end equipment manufacturing industry presented three main stages from 2004 to 2017, including "agglomeration in the downtown area"," emergence of growth poles" and "scatter distribution". In the first stage, the innovation activities show the development of a single center in the downtown area. In the second stage, with the further development of the downtown area, knowledge production sources relying on universities and innovation clusters appeared in the urban fringe. In the third stage, innovation activities were further gathered around the knowledge production source, and at the same time a large number of clusters appeared in the urban fringe. The evolution of the distribution pattern of innovation activities in Hangzhou high-end equipment manufacturing industry has the spatial development process and characteristics from "small agglomeration and large dispersion" to "multi-center and dispersion" and then to "multi-center and fragmented agglomeration".Based on the space-time evolution process and trends of innovation activities, and with the purpose of promoting the development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry, the corresponding measures for the spatial development of innovation activities are proposed: (1) Focus on innovation and cultivation in surrounding areas of universities. It is necessary to gradually cultivate and promote the gathering of innovative talents around universities and strengthen the ability of independent innovation of enterprises. Universities should become innovation centers and promote the development of neighboring areas. (2) Strengthen the cultivation and development of industrial clusters. The coordinated development of transportation organizations and infrastructure should be fully considered. The joint construction of the downtown area and industrial agglomeration areas should be planed. The integration of industrial agglomeration areas and urban central areas should be improved. (3) Optimize the use of the stock space in the downtown area of the city. We should pay attention to the optimal utilization of space stock resources in the downtown area in the development of innovative space.This study takes a typical city as an example to carry out an empirical study, and discusses the spatial development law of urban innovation activities and its driving role in the development of urban real economy, which is of great significance for implementing the allocation of urban resource elements and organizing the development of innovation activities, and improving the innovation-driven effectiveness of urban R&D investment in industrial development. Furthermore, it will be of great significance to realize innovation-driven development of real economy.

Key words: innovation-driven development, real economy, causal relationship, planning countermeasure, Hangzhou City