基于趋势分析的学科研究主题优先级战略坐标

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对学科领域研究主题优先级进行战略分析，能够帮助科研人员及科研管理决策部门快速了解学科领域的研究态势、发现科学前沿，对提高科研产出起到积极的支持和促进作用。本文以图书情报学研究主题为例，采用主题提取与趋势分析相结合的方法，在提取学科主题基础上，从发文趋势和引文趋势两个维度，绘制含“研究贫乏区、热点区、冷点区、过热区”的我国图书情报学领域研究主题战略坐标。研究表明：本文提出的趋势战略坐标能够有效展示学科领域不同研究主题的发展阶段，全面、细致地呈现不同研究主题的发展等级。

关键词: 发文趋势, 引文趋势, 研究主题, 战略坐标

Abstract: The priority strategic analysis of subject area research topics can be used to help researchers and decision-making departments know the research situation of subject areas and find the frontiers of science quickly, which plays a positive role in supporting and promoting scientific research. In this paper, we consider the user′s requirements fully and put forward the strategic coordinates based on the combination of topic extraction and trend analysis. The strategic coordinates divide the research subjects into four areas, they are poor area, hot area, cold area and overheated area. Then we take the research topics of Library and Information Science as an example to draw up strategic coordinates.
Firstly, we download 26,721 valid documents from 2007 to the present in the main core journals in the CNKI database, and use the jiebaR program package in the R software to segment the title and abstract information of the above-mentioned documents and filter pausing-words. Secondly, we use the LDA topic model to extract more than 10 years research topics in the field of Library and Information Science in China, and determine the optimal 100 topics according to the inflection point of perplexity and logarithmic likelihood varying with the number of topics. Thirdly, we calculate the publication trend and citation trend of 100 topic words. Finally, we draw the strategic coordinates of the research topics in the field of Library and Information Science in China according to publication trend and citation trend of 100 topic words. The strategic coordinates divide the research topics into research poor areas, research hot spots, research cold spots and research overheated areas. The specific division process can be seen as follows: if the number of published papers is decreasing and the number of citations is increasing, the corresponding research subjects are in the poor area; if both the number of published papers and the citations are increasing, the corresponding research subjects are in the hot area; if both the number of published papers and the citations are decreasing, the corresponding research subjects are in the cold area; and if the number of published papers is increasing and the number of citations is decreasing, the corresponding research subjects are in the overheated area. Then we made a detailed and specific analysis of the research topics of each area.
This study combines publication trend and citation trend to draw strategic coordinates. This study can comprehensively analyze the development trend of the research topic by perspectives of the researcher and the reader. We determine the optimal number of topics according to the inflection point of perplexity and logarithmic likelihood varying with the number of topics, so the determination of the number of research topics is scientific and reasonable; The study can display the full picture of research topics in the subject area comprehensively, objectively and meticulously. The study has a certain guiding role for scientific researchers in the subject field to quickly discover the scientific frontiers and position the research direction by combining topic extraction and trend analysis, and has an important auxiliary decision-making role for scientific research topics and project applications.

Key words: publication trend, citation trend, research topic, strategic coordinate

李秀霞, 韩霞, 史盛楠. 基于趋势分析的学科研究主题优先级战略坐标[J]. 科研管理, 2021, 42(8): 75-81.

Li Xiuxia, Han Xia, Shi Shengnan. A study of the priority strategy coordinates of subject research topics based on trend analysis[J]. Science Research Management, 2021, 42(8): 75-81.

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