关键词: 效果推理, 不确定性, 自我效能, 中介作用

Abstract: The emergence and development of emerging technologies have brought tremendous changes to the global business environment. The market environment faced by enterprises is characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA). In the highly uncertain environment, it is difficult to predict the future, and traditional decision-making methods do not work. In recent years, a large number of entrepreneurship cases and empirical studies have proved that in highly uncertain environment, entrepreneurs follow the effectuation to make decision. Effectuation theory is action-oriented. It describes how to think, make decisions and practice under uncertainty, including a series of principles such as flexibility, affordable loss, previous commitment and experiment. At present, the effectuation theory has attracted great attention in the field of entrepreneurship. However, researchers have not explained and answered the formation mechanism of the effectuation of entrepreneurs. Besides, Expert entrepreneurs use effectuation because of their rich experience in entrepreneurship, then why and how to induce effectuation? Should effectuation be triggered by rich entrepreneurial experience, or is it a way of thinking and decision-making skills acquired through learning? For ordinary entrepreneurs, under the premise of relatively lack of entrepreneurial experience, can they use the effectuation to make decisions like expert entrepreneurs? Responding to the above questions is very important for studying the formation mechanism of effectuation. Conceptual articles such as Hinz and Zhang Guangqi suggested that self-efficacy can influence the decision-making logic of entrepreneurs. Therefore, this study draws lessons from Bandura’s social learning theory, introduces self-efficacy into the study of effectuation, and explores the key triggering factors and formation mechanism of effectuation, as well as the mediating effect of self-efficacy.
On the basis of summarizing the existing literature，the research model is constructed and the research hypothesis is proposed. This study collected data in the form of questionnaires from Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing. In order to ensure the diversity and reliability of sample data, the questionnaire was mainly distributed through the channels of alumni association, entrepreneurship forum, entrepreneurship incubator and public creation space. The questionnaire asked the founder or principal person in charge of the start-up enterprise to fill in. A total of 350 questionnaires were distributed and 132 questionnaires were collected as the valid samples. Likert five-level scoring method was used in all the items of the eight variables involved in the questionnaire. According to the information described, the respondents selected scores that matched their own feelings. 1 represented a strong disagreement, and the 5 represented a complete agreement. In this study, Harmon single factor analysis was adopted, and the common method variation problem can be ignored.
Before data analysis, Cronbach’s coefficient was used to test the reliability of the variables, and confirmatory factor analysis in the structural equation model was used to test the scale’s structural validity. The test results show that the scale of all the variables have good reliability and discriminative validity. Correlation analysis also shows that there is a strong correlation among the variables in this study. Then Amos was used to test the research hypothesis, and the conclusions showed that: (1) previous accomplishment, vicarious experience and entrepreneurial passion have a significant positive impact on effectuation. That means when entrepreneurs have rich accomplishment in the past, are good at obtaining vicarious experience through expert entrepreneurs, and have a strong entrepreneurial passion, they are more likely to use effectuation to make decisions. (2) Self-efficacy has a significant positive impact on effectuation, which means that when entrepreneurs have a strong sense of self-efficacy, they tend to use effectuation for decision-making. (3) Self-efficacy plays a complete mediating role in the influence of previous accomplishment and vicarious experience on effectuation, and a partial mediating role in the influence of entrepreneurial passion on effectuation.
This study expands the research on the key inducers of the effectuation. Effectuation was initially proposed as a decision-making logic unique to expert entrepreneurs with entrepreneurial experience, while ordinary entrepreneurs tend to use causation to try to predict future events, even if these events are totally unpredictable. Through empirical research, this study finds that the effectuation is not necessarily triggered by rich entrepreneurial experience. Under the premise of relatively lack of entrepreneurial experience, ordinaryentrepreneurs can also use the effectuation to make decisions like expert entrepreneurs through vicarious experience and entrepreneurial passion. Besides, this paper expands the study of self-efficacy. Self-efficacy is considered to affect individual behavior. At present, in the field of entrepreneurship research, some studies have shown that self-efficacy can encourage entrepreneurs to face the difficulties and challenges in the process of entrepreneurship. Other studies have found that self-efficacy can affect the new venture performance. Self-efficacy havs been tested to be more likely to influence entrepreneurs’ behavior and outcomes. As an important logic of entrepreneur’s behavior, the effectuation is considered to be influenced by self-efficacy. Through empirical research, this paper verifies that self-efficacy positively affects effectuation, including flexibility, affordable loss, previous commitment and experiment. What’s more, this study enriches the research on the formation mechanism of effectuation. The improvement of entrepreneurs’ previous accomplishment, vicarious experience and entrepreneurial passion will lead to the improvement of self-efficacy, which further promotes entrepreneurs to use the effectuation for decision-making.
Practically, the results of this study have important implications for our entrepreneurship education. Entrepreneurship education not only teaches skills and promotes entrepreneurship willingness, but also improves students’ self-efficacy through abundant means, such as acquiring vicarious experience and arousing students’ emotions. A higher sense of self-efficacy enables students to use effectuation to think and make decisions like expert entrepreneurs. For entrepreneurs who do not have the opportunity to get entrepreneurship education, the effectuation can also be learned. By making more contacts with experienced entrepreneurs, summarizing their business ideas and decision-making methods, transforming other people’s experience into their own experience, and imitating it into business practice, their self-efficacy will be improved and they are finally able to use the effectuation to make decisions skillfully.
The shortcomings of this paper are as follows: (1) The data sources of this study have some limitations. Future research can expand the scope of data sources; (2) The cross-sectional data collected in this study cannot reflect the dynamic development of entrepreneurs. Future research can track entrepreneurs over a long period of time and collect longitudinal data to analyze dynamic impacts; and (3) The results show that self-efficacy partially mediates the relationship between entrepreneurship passion and effectuation, which indicates that there may be other paths. Therefore, mediating variables could be further studied in the future.

Key words: effectuation, uncertainty, self-efficacy, mediating effect